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Thursday, December 07, 2006

12/7 First Snow Flakes not out of the Question today

Just wanted to give people a heads up that this afternoon and evening may bring with it some snow showers, especially the further north you are. The western Slopes of the Mountains will see their first significant snows (3-6") and the higher Blue Ridge could see an inch or so.. the areas east of the mountains may also see their first few flakes. Longer term after a quick very cold shot tonight and tomorrow, a warmer/milder trend appears to be coming during next week!

All for now!

 
Mid Atlantic Weather: http://www.midatlanticweather.com
Mid atlantic Weather Forum: http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3




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Friday, December 01, 2006

12/1 High Risk of severe weather Today

A very dynamic weather day is on tap which will include a brief period of Showers and Thunderstorms which will contain very gusty winds. The Winds will be topping 60 mph. There is also the threat for Isolated Tornadoes. A High Wind Warning is also in effect for just regular high winds exceeding 50 mph in gusts.
 
Please Stay Alert today as the risk of severe is higher than normal and we will already be dealing with just high winds in general.
 
All for now!

 
Mid Atlantic Weather: http://www.midatlanticweather.com
Mid Atlantic Weather Forum: http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3



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Tuesday, November 21, 2006

11/21 DC/MD/VA Severe Weather Alert

Heavy Rains, highs winds, Mountain Snow?

Very heavy rains, High Winds, and even a taste of mountain snow (maybe) to affct us Tomorrow through Friday.
This is a very slow moving storm that cused snow in South Carolina today.... YES.. SOUTH CAROLINA!!! Charleston reported their earliest snow ever.. even a thundersnow!!! The storm will drop anywhere from 1-2 inches of rain and produce high winds especially east of I-95. The mountains MAY be able to eek a few hours of snow or sleet overnight tonight as the precipoitation makes its way into some colder air.

The weekend looks great after this passes..

MAYBE some colder air later next week! Storm??? Not sure!

** I will start regular updates again on my Web Site!!! Hoping to update and expand the winter section as well!

NEED A NINTENDO Wii? email me! wii@midatlanticweather.com

 
Mid Atlantic Weather: http://www.midatlanticweather.com
Mid atlantic Weather Forum: http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3




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Thursday, November 16, 2006

11/16/2006 Sever Weather Alert

Severe Weather has becom very likely today, especially in Southeastern VA. Threat of Tornadoes and damaging winds even Tornado watches already posted!! Please stay tuned to Radio and News Outlets!

All for now!
 
Mid Atlantic Weather: http://www.midatlanticweather.com
Mid atlantic Weather Forum: http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3




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Wednesday, November 15, 2006

11/16/2006 DC/MD/VA Severe Weather Alert

A very strong storm will cause Springlike Severe weather tomorrow. This will include strong gusty winds, thunderstorms, and even potential tornadoes! This will end the warmer weather trend we have had. Much colder temps will visit us through the weekend and into early next week.
 
Long Term, we should moderate to normal temperatures
 
Please stay tuned to news and weather outlets
 
Mid Atlantic Weather: http://www.midatlanticweather.com
Mid atlantic Weather Forum: http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3



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Friday, October 27, 2006

Severe weather and heavy rains. Then very high winds!

Weather conditions will continue to worsen as a dynamic system organizes in our region. High winds, heavy rains and even potentially severe storms will occur as things come together. Severe weather will mainly be possible east of I-95. 1-3" of rain could occur. After things clear tomorrow, get ready for very heavy winds as the storm really organizes north of here causing western New England and the Great lakes an eventual snowstorm with even Blizzard like conditions in some instances..

As is typical with this time of year, we will moderate some through the middle of next week. Next weekend may again present wet weather and much cooler conditions.

All for now!

 
Mid Atlantic Weather: http://www.midatlanticweather.com
Mid Atlantic Weather Forum: http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3



Thursday, September 28, 2006

9/28/2006 DC?MD/VA Sever Weather Discussion

There is a risk of some isolated severe storms today due to a strong cold front that will come through this afternoon and evening. Strong winds and large hail are possible in some storms.
 
Stay tuned to TV and radio Outlets for watches and/or warnings.
 
All for now!
 

Sunday, September 24, 2006

9/24 DC/MD/VA Severe Weather Outlook

SEVERE WEATHER ALERT
 
A strong front and area o energy will cross the region today. The energy available with a very moist and unstable atmosphere should end up producing scattered strong to severe thunderstorms. The biggest threat from the storms today will be damaging winds, but isolated hail reports are not out of the question. There is a slight risk of isolated tornadoes as well.
 
Please stay alert to TV and Radio outlets for watches and warnings that will likely be posted this afternoon!
 
All for now!
 

Saturday, September 16, 2006

9/16 Outlook for Possible Seveer Weather Tuesday

Due to lack of Internet access the next several days this is an early outlook for potential severe weather Tuesday or Wednesday of next Week! It will be followed by some much cooler weather as we heat up early in the week!

All for a Week! =)

Thursday, August 31, 2006

8/31/2006 09:08:00 PM DC/MD/VA Weather Update

Ernesto coming ashore with almost Hurricane force this evening.
 
It appears that it may head a bit further east than first thought. Still looking at a good 3-6"+ with isolatead 10"+ amounts. The storm will be a bit stronger than first anticipated so some gust winds tomorrow and areas on teh immediate coastal plain. Please monitor these 2 threads for the latest on the Tropical System and the Flooding Threat: Flood Threat: http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3/index.php?topic=1244.0
 
 
Please DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOOD WATERS! The eventual track could be a curve as it runs into a strong blocking high to the north. This High will be the key in precip amounts. I would say that areas would be dealing with a huge winter storm if the time of year was right =)
 
Stay tuned to news and weather outlets for warnings.

--
Posted by midatlanticweather to Forecast Discussion at 8/31/2006 09:08:00 PM

Wednesday, August 30, 2006

FLOODING RAINS AND SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY

FLOODING RAINS AND SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY

I hope you have been reading www.midatlanticweather.com and seen my concerns on the coming flooding rains over the next few days! As Tropical Storm Ernesto (I suspect he will be upgraded to Tropical Storm within hours of re-emerging off the coast of Florida) moves up the coast, a High Pressure will also provide a fetch of moisture off the Atlantic. Needless to say the combination will prove extremely wet and we will see very heavy rainfall. To the east of the Circulation Severe weather will likely occur with some tornadoes possible. All in all 5- 10" of rain is possible, especially across the Flood plains, River Flooding is anticipated as well as some Flash Flooding!

PLEASE STAY ALERT to the weather and DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOOD WATERS!

See this post in the Forum for the latest forecasts by the National Weather Service:
http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3/index.php?topic=1244.0

Stay tuned to News and Media outlets for Watches and Warnings!

All for now!


Thursday, August 24, 2006

8/24 DC/MD/VA Severe Weather Alert

Severe Weather Alert
Conditions could become favorable for isolated strong t severe storms today. The Biggest threat would b damaging winds.
 
Stay tuned to media and weather outlets for the latest watches and/or warnings.
 
Of Note: Tropical Storm Debby will likely head to sea, but a disturbance in teh Caribbean will likely become a Tropical Depression later today and could be the first real hurricane threat for the US in the next week.

Tuesday, August 01, 2006

7/18/2006 Severe Weather Alert

Severe Weather Alert

Severe Storms are starting to pop up , especially in Northern Virginia and Maryland. A severe Thunderstorm Watch has been posted for Parts of Maryland.

 

Also, tropical Depression 2 formed off the Southeast coast today. Please see the newly updated tropical Center on http://www.midatlanticweather.com for the latest

 

All for now!

 

Monday, July 31, 2006

7/19 Severe Weather Alert

Severe Weather Alert
Thunderstorms have fired up again today over South Central Virginia and many have become severe. Please stay alert!

Jimmy


Thursday, July 20, 2006

7/20 DC/MD/VA Severe Weather Alert

Severe Weather Alert

Isolated thunderstorms could enter the western parts of our area and some could contain high winds. A busier Severe weather day looks on tap tomorrow and heavy rains are possible this weekend. Please stay alert!

Thursday, July 13, 2006

7/13 DC/MD/VA Severe Weather Alert

Severe Weather Alert
The combination of a slow moving front and a very moist unstable airmass should be sufficeint for some scattered severe storms today. The biggest threat will be winds with the possibility of some hail. This threat seems more likely in the Southern 2/3rds of Virginia into northern North Carolina.

There is also the possibiliy that some localized flooding could occur as storms may be repeated in the same areas from today through Saturday.

All for now.

Wednesday, July 12, 2006

7/12 DC/MD/VA Severe Weather Alert

7/12 Severe Weather Alert
Conditions will be very unstable, especially over northern areas today, as a front approaches the area under very warm and humid conditions. There are many dynamics available to produce strong to severe storms which could include hail and even isolated tornadoes.

Please stay tuned to radio and news outlets for watches and/or warnings.

All for now.

7/12 Severe Weather Alert

7/12 Severe Weather Alert
Conditions will be very unstable, especially over northern areas today, as a front approaches teh area under very warm and humid conditions. There are many dynamics available to produce strong to severe storms which could include hail and even isolated tornadoes.

Please stay tuned to radio and news outlets for watches and/or warnings.

All for now.

Sunday, July 09, 2006

7/9 DC/MD/VA Severe Weather Alert

Severe Weather Alert

There is a potential for isolated severe storms today. The storms could produce large hail and some could produce strong winds. Please stay alert to news and radio outlets.

All for now.


Wednesday, July 05, 2006

7/5 DC/MD/VA Severe Wether Alert

Severe Weather Possible Today
Sever storms are possible today in the region, especially the southern 2/3rds of Virginia and North Carolina. The biggest threat today will be high winds and hail, but isolated tornadoes are possibility especially the Eastern areas of Southern Virginia and North Carolina. Please stay tuned to radio and news outlets for watches or warnings.

In addition to severe weather, Flash Flooding could also occur today in storms. Please stay alert and DO NOT drive through water!

All for now!

Tuesday, July 04, 2006

7/4 DC/MD/VA Severe Weather Alert

DC/MD/VA Severe Weather Alert

The potential is there today for Severe storm. Stay tuned to news and weather outlets. It will also be very hot today! Drink plenty of liquids and limit exposure to the sun!

Have a happy safe 4th!

 


Thursday, June 29, 2006

6/26/2006 DC/MD/VA Severe Weather Alert

Severe Weather Alert

This Afternoon and evening will contain scattered thunderstorms. Some storms will reach severe limits. The biggest threat will be strong winds and hail, but isolated tornadoes will also be possible! Please stay alert and tuned in to local news and radio outlets for watches and or warnings!

For today's weather outlook visit http://www.midatlanticweather.com


Wednesday, June 28, 2006

6/28 Scattered Strong to Severe Storms

Severe Weather Alert

Scattered strong to severe storms are possibl ethis evening. Expecting a few to become severe and still some heavy rain. These will no be widespread! Stay tuned to news and weather outlets for updates.

 

 

Tuesday, June 27, 2006

6/27 DC/MD/VA Severe Weather Alert

Severe Weather Alert

A developing tropical system is getting entrained into the front that has been stalled across the region. The combination of this tropical system and the front as well as intermittent sunshine is causing numerous showers and storms to develop. This is of course bad news for flooding which appears that it may worsen as the tropical system moves through, but now Severe Storms capable of strong winds and isolated tornadoes are also possible, especially in eastern areas. Please stay alert to news and radio outlets for watches and or warnings! Never drive through water!

Friday, June 23, 2006

6/23 Severe Weather Alert

SEVERE WEATHER ALERT!
A frontal boundary has become stationary over the area and will reamin for the next several days. At first the contrasts between the warm and cooler air will be a focus for seveer storms today. The biggest threat will be high winds and hail. Isolated tornadoes will also be possible!
 
FLOODING RAINS Likely for Some
The stalled front responsible for strong to severe storms will also help squeeze out abundant moisture. Flooding seems very probable for parts of the region where areas could top 6 inches of rain between now and early next week!
 
Please stay tuned to Radio and News outlets for watches or warnings.
 
Also visit http://www.midatlanticweather.com for the weather information you need in the Mid Atlantic!
 
 
 

Thursday, June 22, 2006

6/22 Severe Weather Alert

SEVERE WEATHER ALERT!
A frontal boundary will become stationary over the area for the next several days. At first the contrasts between the warm and cooler air over the front will be come a focus mechanism for Strong and Severe storms today and especially tomorrow.
 
FLOODING RAINS POSSBLE
The stalled front responsible for strong to severe storms will also help squeeze out abundant moisture. Flooding seems very probable for parts of the region where areas could top 6 inches of rain between now and early next week!
 
VERY HOT TODAY
The rain in the north today MAY assist in holding temperatures from reaching the maxes once forecast, but I do believe many areas will see temperatures in the mid 90s today and could see heat indexes at 100 degrees or more! Be careful!
 
 

Monday, June 19, 2006

6/19 DC/MD/VA Severe Weather Alert

6/19 DC/MD/VA Severe Weather Alert
 With the approach of a weak frontal boundary and a very warm atmosphere, conditions should become favorable for some thunderstorms. It is possible that these storms could become severe capable of high winds and hail. There is even the possibility of some storms producing isolated tornadoes. Please stay tuned to weather and news outlets for watches and or warnings!

All for now!



Friday, June 09, 2006

6/9 Severe Weather

Severe Weather Alert!

Isolated Severe storms have been popping up in northern reagions. Please be alert for possible strong winds and hail from these isolated thunderstorms.

 

Thursday, June 08, 2006

6/8 Alert: Severe Weather Possible today

Severe Weather Possible Today

There is a possibility of scattered Severe Storms today. The main threat will be high winds and some hail. Please stay tuned to weather and news outlets for possible watches and/or warnings.

 

 

Friday, May 26, 2006

5/26 Severe Weather Possible today

Severe Weather Possible today
 
A warm moist air mass and an approaching cold front will combine to produce showers and thunderstorms today. As the storms form (mainly east of the mountains) some may become severe. The biggest threat will be high winds, but there are some indications that conditions could produce some isolated tornadoes especially east of I-95. Stay tuned to news and weather outlets for watches and/or warnings.
 
All for now!
 
Jimmy

Sunday, May 14, 2006

5/14 Severe Weather Alert

Severe Storm Alert
 
With a strong Low in Michigan and a spoke of energy coming through today a chance of severe storms exists today. Some storms may become tornadic as the situation becomes more volatile. Please stay tuned to radio and news outlets for watches and/or warnings.
 

 
Great School in Northern Virginia. http://www.ambleside.org

Saturday, April 15, 2006

4/15 DC/MD/VA Severe Weather Alert

Severe Weather Alert:

 

There is a risk of Severe Storms today. Biggest threat will be winds and hail but there is a risk of some isolated tornadoes.

 

The Risk will also exist tomorrow.

 

Stay tuned to radio and news outlets

Monday, April 03, 2006

4/3 Alert: Severe threat will increase

As the day wears on there will be some breaks in the clouds. A very dynamic atmosphere is set up ac cross the region and Super Cell thunderstorms (rotating) will likely form in some areas.  This should increase the chance for damaging winds, hail and even tornadoes. Please stay alert to news and radio as watches and warnings are likely to be posted in the later afternoon.
 
All for now.
 
Jimmy

Monday, March 20, 2006

A little snow. Not much!

Many north of a Fredericksburg to Charlottesville line up to Baltimore will see a little snow tomorrow. Ground temps will be warm. Expecting nothing more than a dusting to an inch or so.
 
There could be slightly more near Charlottesville and in the higher elevations.
 
2" would be the max for low elevations and not much will fall in Northern Maryland.
 
Hey.. it is Late March!
 
There is a slight possibility of another storm this weekend that could cause snow.. but I am not very confident in the idea and again higher elevations would see the real threat.
 
We need rain in the region as we are very, very dry!
 
 
Great School in Northern Virginia. http://www.ambleside.org

Sunday, March 19, 2006

Colder than normal temps + a southern storm= SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE!


Colder than normal temps + a southern storm= SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE!


Summary:  Wow! Here we go with another chance of snow! Anyone remember temps last weekend?  That is right! Give the weather a week and things can chage. The Combining features. A strong 1040MB High (Impressive this time of year) in Canada and a southern storm. So many things work against accumulating snow in areas east of the mountains this time of year!

  1. Warm ground
  2. Warm sun
  3. Long daylight hours
  4. Climatology

 

BUT.. there are exceptions to every situation! And this may be the exception! Right now, the most favored areas are higher elevations, especially north of Charlottesville. Higher elevations could see 3-6” and lower elevations 1-3”. Areas west of I-95 north of Fredericksburg to Charlottesville seem more likely to me than anywhere else to see snow (other than the mountains of course)

 

Longer term appears to remain below normal to near normal temps and continued dry.

 

   

Thanks to all who continue to post to the Forum. The community has grown to 44 members. http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3/

 

Did you know? I send this update out semi regularly via email! To get it send and email to midatlanticweather-subscribe@yahoogroups.com I also send a Severe Weather Alert when we need it. To get it mid-atlanticweather-subscribe@yahoogroups.com I am considering a tropical only list as well.

 

Great Host! Vodahost.. 12000 MB of space,  unlimited domains, unlimited email accounts! http://www.vodahost.com?a_aid=0048a41a

 

 

 

Forecast text and graphics from National Weather Service. Mid Atlantic Weather com is not responsible for accuracy of these forecasts and may not be held liable for any damages caused by using this web site. Data may not be current therefore the user agrees to always rely upon official forecast products for their area provided by the National Weather Service.


 
Great School in Northern Virginia. http://www.ambleside.org

Thursday, March 16, 2006

A little snow after 85 degree weather! Wow!

Later tonight in areas mainly North of Fredericksburg to Charlottesville and west of I-95 may see a bit of snow! Snow could set up in a narrow band and cause heavier accumulations (up to 3" on grassy areas in higher elevations), but mainly a dusting for most who see it.. Road and ground temperatures are pretty warm so this will not cause major issues except maybe some of the higher elevations.
 
Temperatures will remain cool through the weekend and another rain/snow mixing type scenario may unfold next week. That is iffy as of now.
 
85 degree temps to snow in 4 days! Wow!
 
All for now!
 
 
Great School in Northern Virginia. http://www.ambleside.org

Monday, March 13, 2006

Severe Storms Possible and a Switch Back to colder weather =(

Severe Storms Possible Today

 

After a beautiful weekend we will have a strong front coming through the area this evening and overnight. Preceding this front will be record or near record warmth in the mid and upper 80s. The sharp contrast in temperatures is a focus line for strong to severe storms. The biggest threat will be high winds and hail, but isolated tornadoes are not out of the question. The biggest threat time will be between 5pm tonight and 1am tomorrow morning.

 

Unfortunately this is a signal to colder temps for the rest of the week. There is even a chance of some snow Thursday night in parts of the region!

 

All for now.

 

 

Wednesday, February 22, 2006

2/22 Some Areas of heavy/moderate snow and accumlations

Snow is falling rather moderately to sometimes heavy north and western regions! Reports in the far west and slightly elevated areas have 3-5". There appears to be a chance that grassy areas could have 1-2" where it is snowing moderately now!
 
When snow is moderate and heavy, slushy to snow covered roads have been reported! Stay safe. I can see the western edge of the precipitation on radar advancing eastward so things will likely end between 10 and 11 am.

 
Great School in Northern Virginia. http://www.ambleside.org

Tuesday, February 21, 2006

2/21 Increased Risk for Light Snow Tomorrow

There is an increased risk of light snow in the morning tomorrow as a southern weather disturbance passes through the area. The increased risk will be for areas where precip begins before sunrise. The reason for increasing the risk is the colder temperatures that are already in place as the area is under ideal radiational cooling. Best risk of light accumulations would be Virginia west of a Charlottesville to Roanoke line. I am not expecting more that a dusting to an inch in these areas, but roads could be cold making commutes rough. For the rest of the area, the risk is there that precip could start before dawn. If it does, allow extra time as small events like these are usually the roughest commutes! Once the sun is up, temps appear to rise to start melting and even could transition precip to rain in areas. IF precip begins before sunrise, the rise in temps could be slower.
 
Be careful!
 
Of note, we will have the coldest air of the season Sunday and Monday followed by a continues cooler than normal period. In the 7-10 day period there are signals of a potential significant winter storm!
 
All for now!
 
Great School in Northern Virginia. http://www.ambleside.org

Saturday, February 18, 2006

2/18 Light Snow possible today

Already snowing in Southwestern VA and western NC. Expect up to an inch in most spots. In Southwestern 1-3" with isolated 4" amounts higher elevations seems possible. Best accumulations will be on car tops and grassy areas!
 
Snow chances best from Charlottesville to Fredericksburg to Salisbury and south. Best chance of Accumlations, 30 miles either side of a Dublin to Roanoke to Richmond line.
 
up to an inch possible.
 
1-3" Southwestern VA where snow started around sunrise!
 
All for now!
 
Great School in Northern Virginia. http://www.ambleside.org

Friday, February 10, 2006

2/11 2/12 Final Call

2/11 2/12 Final Call
 
Hagerstown: 4-8”
Frederick, MD: 4-8”
Montgomery, MD: 5-9”
Baltimore: 6-10”
D.C: 6-10” (Maybe some sleet/rain at start)
Dulles: 4-8” (Maybe some sleet)
Fredericksburg: 6-10” (Maybe some sleet)
Salisbury: 1-3” then Rain
Richmond: 3-6” (Mixing with rain and sleet)
Williamsburg 1-3” (Mixing with sleet and rain)
Emporia: Mix then rain
VA Beach: Rain (Sorry stormy!  sad )
Martinsburg: 3-6” (Some Sleet)
Roanoke: 3-6”
Charlottesville: 4-8”
Leesburg: 4-8”
 
Heaviest snow arrives morning far SW
Late Morning Southwest
1-4 PM Richmod and Fredericksburg
5-8 PM DC and Baltmore
 
 
 
or
 
 
 
Great School in Northern Virginia. http://www.ambleside.org

2/10 SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM CONTINUES ON TRACK FOR THIS WEEKEND

SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM CONTINUES ON TRACK FOR THIS WEEKEND

 

What: All models are showing what should become a significant snow storm for the mid Atlantic Region this weekend.

 

When: Starting overnight Friday in the southwestern regions and spreading over the northern areas by late afternoon Saturday

 

How Much: Well, ranges in precip come in between 3-6” (Further South and west) and  4-8” (Further North and even east).. Some areas **COULD** see amounts in the 10” range.

Where:

I-95 areas and about 40 miles either side of it may be the jackpot areas until you get midway between Richmond and Fredericksburg, where you should pull the rain/snow line back west to western North Carolina.

Southeastern Virginia, from Just west of Richmond to Danville and the areas east should see a mix and the closer to the coast a changeover to rain. (Like Williamsburg to the Eastern Shore and Lower Southern Maryland)

 

This will be fine tuned… and I hope a map later tonight.

 

Amount Highlights:

Hagerstown: 3-6”

Frederick, MD: 3-6”

Montgomery, MD: 3-6”

Baltimore: 4-8”

D.C: 3-6” (Maybe some sleet/rain at start)

Dulles: 3-6” (Maybe some sleet)

Fredericksburg: 3-6” (Maybe some sleet)

Salisbury: 1-2” then Rain

Richmond: 1-2” (Mixing with rain and sleet)

Williamsburg 1-2” (Mixing with sleet and rain)

Emporia: Trace then rain

VA Beach: Few flakes then rain

Martinsburg: 3-6” (Some Sleet)

Roanoke: 3-6”

Charlottesville: 3-6”

Leesburg: 3-6”

 

Hopefully this gives you some idea of my thoughts!

 

 

Concerns:

  1. System bombing out and timing will make all the difference! I am thinking Maryland near Baltimore could be closer to 10”+ amounts
  2. The speed of movement is in question to an extent. Speed will make all the difference as well.
  3. A dry slot could develop in areas which will drop amounts
  4. time of day is not favorable for best accumulations.
  5. Any convective activity will up amounts in some regions… yes… Thundersnow!
  6. Still worried about a Southeastward shift in storm track. One of the latest models confirmed this concern.

 

All for now!

 www.midatlanticweather.com


 

Great School in Northern Virginia. http://www.ambleside.org

Thursday, February 09, 2006

SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM ON TRACK FOR THIS WEEKEND

SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM ON TRACK FOR THIS WEEKEND

 

What: All models are showing what should become a significant snow storm for the Mid Atlantic Region this weekend.

 

When: Starting overnight Friday in the southwestern regions and spreading over the northern areas by late afternoon Saturday

 

How Much: Well, ranges in precip come in between 3-5” for a large area with some higher spots likely seeing 4-8”. It does appear that there will be a sharp cut off on the western edge so the mountains and westward may really miss the heavier snows as well as the immediate piedmont areas of Western Maryland and Northern Virginia. Please note there could be some higher amounts within the jack pot areas as well. A lot to watch!

 

Where:

I-95 areas and about 30 miles either side of it may be the jackpot areas until you get just south of Richmond where you should pull the rain/snow line back west to western North Carolina.

Southeastern Virginia and the areas east of 30 miles or so east of I-95 should see a mix and the closer to the coast a changeover to rain.

Western and north of areas from Leesburg down to Charlottesville and then Southwestward towards Bristol could see a rapid drop off in snow amounts, but this is too detailed and could change

 

This will be fine tuned.

 

Concerns:

  1. True model Consensus is not there yet.
  2. Amounts will be hard to determine until the models handle some of the phasing of the systems better
  3. Could see a further north and west pull of warm air if the system gets stronger, thus putting I-95 corridor in jeopardy of a changeover
  4. There is also the possibility the storm stays further South and East which would limit Northern and Western area snows.. As noted, there could be a sharp cut off in snow to the west.

 

All for now!

 

Jimmy

http://www.midatlanticweather.com

 

Great School in Northern Virginia. http://www.ambleside.org

Wednesday, February 08, 2006

2/8 Winter Storm Is Possible This Weekend!

Latest Models and trends show a moderate risk for a significant snow storm this weekend. This is the first model run to have consensus on the system, and there are many questions concerning the storm! I will do an official alert later tonight or early tomorrow morning. For now you can read the eveolution of this system at http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3/index.php?topic=1008.0
 
All for Now
 
Great School in Northern Virginia. http://www.ambleside.org

Friday, January 13, 2006

1/13 DC/MD/VA Severe and winter weather alert

The first things first: Severe weather possible overnight. Very strong winds tomorrow. Possible period of snow tomorrow night (Northern areas and Appalachians, mainly west of I-p5 and north of Fredericksburg.
 
Biggest threat tonight is high winds but isolated tornadoes are possible.
 
All I have time for now!

 
Great School in Northern Virginia. http://www.ambleside.org

Monday, January 02, 2006

1/2 DC/MD/VA Severe Weather Alert

Severe weather possible today.

A strong cold front will combine with a developing low pressure to cause widespread heavy rains and some strong to severe thunderstorms today. The best chances for severe weather will be the Southern areas of Virginia and especially North Carolina. Areas just east of the mountains may be stable enough to prevent the severe weather. The biggest threat would be strong winds and hail, but conditions in North Carolina (and limited elsewhere) does appear to be able to support tornadoes!

Please stay alert to weather and media outlets for watches or warnings.

Of note, this morning temperatures in the northern parts of the mountain valleys has been cold enough fro some freezing rain.

All for now!
 


Great School in Northern Virginia. http://www.ambleside.org


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