Severe Storm threat to increase - especially tonight

Today will be hot and increasingly unstable. Storms will start to form, but more to the west, later today. Storms will have a lot of rain, winds, and hail. With the way that these storms are, it is possible that tornadoes could form as well. The chances of a tornado are not great, but a bit higher than what we normally see.

The storms will really hit the area more overnight and into Monday morning. Please stay alert for watches and warnings that could come up as soon as this afternoon to the west.

All for now! 

Severe Threat Sunday - Strong storms, Hail, Winds, and Tornadoes are possible

Severe Threat Sunday - Strong storms, Hail, Winds, and Tornadoes are possible

The Severe Threat will increase Sunday - Storms with the potential of hail and high winds as well as tornadoes will start to affect the Western area and spread east. This will be something to stay on top of tomorrow! Storms are currently dumping flooding rains (in excess of 12 inches in some places) in Tennessee. Tornadoes are breaking out all over Arkansas. I am watching the videos o storm chasers on http://severestudios.com.

 

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Severe Weather Threat will increase through teh day!

We have the likelihood that severe weather and storms will develop this afternoon in the region. Hail and High winds will be the main threat with isolated tornadoes very possible. Please stay tuned to news and media outlets for watches and or warnings as the day progresses!

 

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Severe Weather possible Sunday!

The day will see an increase in moisture and rain showers. As more unstable air moves in storms in south ad southwest will increase. The risk of Severe weather does visit the area tomorrow as the combination of heating and a low pressure forms over the region. High winds will be the main threat, but hail and isolated tornadoes also appear possible.

 

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Flooding Rains looking likely Friday and Saturday!

Not much time (as usual) but flooding rains appear likely this coming Friday and Saturday as a slow moving, very powerful system comes though.Rain could be in the 3 to 5 inches range. Snow pack from the mountains will melt to exacerbate a potentially severe flooding episode!

Please stay alert! Floods kill more people than all other types of weather events!

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BLIZZARD conditions to be met for a large part of Maryland an a little of Northern Virginia! - First Guesses on some points!

Latest Models show main threat for larger snows stay Northeast in Maryland. Could see a 1-3 inch snow in Loudoun - maybe 3 to 5" in DC - Baltimore looks like a 5 to 10 inch system to me. Still bears serious watching as the models have shifted back an forth quite a bit! Winds will howl Thursday with snow in the air! Winter is not done!

Also, light snows possible all the way down in Richmond and along coastal plains of VA as the storm passes by - General 1 - 3" possible, mainly on grass

3" puts DC at snowiest February on record!

As of now my first Guess:
DC - 3- 5" - Blizzard conditions

VA:
Dulles - 2 - 4" - Blizzard conditions
Leesburg - 1-3" - Near or Blizzard conditions
Fairfax - 3 - 5" North half of county/ 1-3" south! - Blizzard
Arlington - 3 - 5" - Blizzard
Richmond - 2" on grass


MD:
Baltimore - 6 - 10" - Blizzard
Bel Air - 7 - 12" - Blizzard
Columbia - 4 - 8" Blizzard

All the time I have for now! These are first GUESSES! This will be a tough one.

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Light Snow event on the way

Not a lot of time to write this morning. The Alberta clipper sill doe best in the Mountains where 3 to 6 inches of snow will initially fall. More snow will continue west of the ridges where 6 to 12" of snow should accumulate. For areas East of I-95 and South of Fredericksburg to Roanoke, rain will ultimately be the systems output and this will mean a trace to maybe an inch. Along I-95 north and west will see a longer period of snow and the Immediate Piedmont could see 1 to possibly 3 inches of snow.

Long term there does appear to be a pattern set up that could produce another sizable snow storm.

All for now!

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Snow is on the way!

Sorry for the lack of an alert! If you have been checking http://www.midatlanticweather.com I did put put a map early this morning! The snow will start today and for areas of Northern Virginia, Central and Eastern Maryland, and Eastern PA it will be heavier overnight. I do anticipate some mixing issues at some point in this storm for areas of DC, Charlottesville, possibly even Baltimore and south and east.The further south and east, the more the mixing. I put the DC region at 4 to 8" because of this. DC could be higher if  more snow than I anticipate comes from the coastal.

Quick thoughts on totals (within 2 inches either side of the number):
Dulles - 7
Leesburg - 10
DC - 8
Baltimore - 14
Fredericksburg - 3
Charlottesville - 3 (maybe up to 5)
Towson - 16
York PA - 16
Frederick MD - 11
Front Royal - 11

One other important ingredient of this storm will be the strong winds. Winds will increase towards teh end of teh storm and make for considerable blowing an drifting. Be safe!

All for now!

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MAJOR - HISTORICAL WINTER STORM ON THE WAY

So many things involved in the placements of the heaviest snow. I am seeing shift to the south this evening and the heaviest snow could be south of what I have set.

This will be interesting with banding snows setting up. Some areas may be far less and some a lot more based on meso scale set ups. In these bands of heavier, high snows, closer to the highest ends of precip amounts will show up. Some thunder and lightning is possible. As the storm strengthens, winds will increase and near blizzard conditions will set up. Along the coast of New Jersey and Delaware, blizzard warnings were posted. More may be posted by tomorrow evening.

The heavy snow area will likely set up between Washington DC and Richmond about mid way and to the coast. This is based on some later model information.

I think Central Virginia is now headed for a 10 to 12 even higher snow storm.

This is a HUGE storm!

Some Point forecasts

Within 4 inches too LOW or to HIGH! for my points -
Points -
Baltimore - 23
Dulles - 25
Washington DC - 25
Manassas - 26
Charlottesville - 27
Dover - 28
Annapolis - 29
Woodbridge - 28
Stafford - 28
Charlottesville - 27
Richmond - 10 - sleet in the middle - Storm Sandwich
Lycnchburg - 15 - some sleet
Roanoke 15 inches - Sleety
Williamsburg - 12 - A lot sleet in the middle
Petersburg - 5 - Dry Slot

HISTORIC WINTER STORM ON THE WAY FOR PARTS OF THE REGION!

I am trying to get a grip on this, but we are in for a SERIOUS CRIPPLING SNOW for parts of the region. Areas now appear to be headed of 2 feet of snow or more in Northern Virginia, Maryland, and Delaware. This is serious!!!! A State of Emergency has been declared and, just like people get ready for Hurricanes, you need to take this seriously! We will see extremely heavy snow from Friday night through Noon Saturday for the Northern Virginia.

Preliminary map posted at http://www.midatlanticweather.com

First Guess:
DC - 16"
Dulles - 20"
Charlottesville - 20"
Fredericksburg - 15"(Some sleet)
Richmond - 7" with a lot of sleet
Roanoke - 8" - Sleet and freezing rain too
Frederick Maryland -20"
Baltimore - 22"
Bowie - 22"
Annapolis - 22"
Dover 22"
I also have concern that NC will see a serious/severe ice storm in some of the valleys. ALSO, flooding in Southeastern VA and a lot of North Carolina that has snow pack is possible!
Serious situation!

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Major East Coast Snow could be a possible Historical East Coast Snow

First off, this season has been so surprising. Tonight's storm will drop (in my back yard) nearly 6" or possibly more! This is a 40"+ season already, and we are heading for a lot more. Tonight's snows will have dumped 3 to 5 inches in a lot of Northwest Vorginia and 2 to 4" in the northern half of Virgina and Marland is receiving 2 to 4 inches! Heavy snow fell here for about 3 hours!

Friday into Saturday looks great for a snow lover like me! Snow amounts in the northern part of Virginia, Central and Western Maryland, and on up into New Jersey could see totals approach 20 inches. This is especially true west of I-95. South and east of a Charlottesville, Dulles, Baltimore line will very likely see a mix of sleet and even rain further east. This will then all end as snow for most places.

This will be a very big storm.. heavy precipitation is also likely. People under a lot of snow that end up with rain may see some flooding rains! If you have a lot of snow, please be certain you have cleared drains so that run off does not back up against your house. Coastal flooding also looks likely in this one due to the duration.

When will this thing arrive. It will start Friday - mid to late day and overspread the region. This has shown some speed fluctuation so we will have to see what comes of this!

I am not trying to over worry folks, but another storm looks possible next week, and, this one could affect us mid week. This will be something to watch and could be big. After this I am seeing the possibility of a serious cold set up for a bit!

What a winter! ALL for now!

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Winter Weather Alert - Bit more snow than expected

Areas along I -95 from Fredericksburg north into southern Maryland could see 1 to 2 inches of snow with a mix of rain at first.
Areas west of I-95 - 15 miles east of a line from Charlottesville to Dulles and westward to the mountains and beyond could see  2 to as much as 4" of snow. The higher amounts likely immediate  Piedmont and mountains.

Areas south on I -95 a mix of sleet and rain will occur, but Southwestern VA and western NC will see a mix of sleet, snow, and freezing rain. Please be careful!

The Weekend system is setting up as a northwestern 2/3rds of the state. Due to a bit of warmer conditions I would set this more in line with the totals from the December 19th storm for these areas. Along I - 95 from Fredericksburg and going down to Richmond will see a mixing scenario. It is possible that the mixing will go west of this, but the snow totals will be impressive.

This will again likely be a MAJOR storm and some areas could again approach 20" or more of snow!

Please stay alert today as the snow moves in for the evening rush up north.

All I have for now!

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Winter weather alert for Snow and a mix

Winter weather alert for Snow and a mix.

There will be a period of wintry weather starting as early as tomorrow morning for areas of Southwestern VA and Western NC. Down there there will mainly be a mix of sleet, freezing rain, and some snow is possible as you head north. As the system moves through snow will also break out through the state. Along I-95 this will be a mix and then end as some snow. The Piedmont from Roanoke to Charlottesville and up to Dulles airport and inch or two of snow may occur!

This weekend's storm looks very impressive. So much so, I am just trying to raise awareness. I am concerned of 2 things!
1. We will see the biggest snows of the season! Areas that saw up to 2 feet on December 19th, may see a storm that is BIGGER than this!
2. A mix along and east of I-95 which will cause a big decrease in snow amounts!

Please be alert of the snow tomorrow and be expecting winter weather this weekend!

All for now!

 

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Snow expands north!

It is late in the game and at Night.

I have update http://www.midatlanticweather.com

It is late and I am sorry I do not have time to post all totals!

DC Area - 3 to 6" possible
Roanoke - 8 - 12"
Richmond - 10 - 14+
Norfolk 8 - 12"
Charlottesville - 6 - 10"
Fredericksburg - 4 - 8"
Raleigh - 6 - 8" - Sleet becoming a concern!
Asheville - 12"
Wintergreen - 10 - 14"
Harrisonburg - 8 - 10"

Biggest changes - more mix possible Central NC
Precip has advanced north.

North could see 1 - 3" more than I show if north trends continue.

Map posted at http://www.midatlanticweather.com

Good night!

Storm on track - Hostoric Winter and Snow Storm for Southern Third of VA and a lot of NC!

I would not stray too far from my map for Virginia that I have up on Mid Atlantic Weather. This looks like a Historic event. Snow will start in the evening in the southwest and overspread the southern third of Virginia and the northern half of North carolina. I may say a 1 to 3  inch increase in higher amount locations could occur as the ratios of snow per liquid equivalent will be high! That is rare for that part of the country. Snow will gradually progress north but it seems unlilkely it will make it past the southern DC metro area. Around that area an inch may fall. A very cold day with temps region wide in the 20s tomorrow. North Carolina, South Carolina and Northeast Georgia could see Ice totals up to or over 1 inch. Snow will be cut down in total amounts for the southern half of the state with sleet and freezing rain a real issue down to the South Carolina border. This will be one for the rcord books. Some adjustments may come as the storm gets closer, but those in the warned areas should prepare!

Major Snow Storm on the way for VA/NC - Serious Ice to the south!

Select Cities for an idea!

Richmond - 8"
Bristol - 13"
Roanoke - 8"
Raleigh - 8" - With Sleet too
 Norfolk - 10 - 12" Sleet at first
Charlottesville - 5"
Frederickburg - 3 - 4"
Dulles - 1"
DC - 2"
Asheville - 7" and sleet
Raleigh - 8"
Danville - 14 - 16"
Martinsville - 14 - 16"
Roanoke Rapids - 12 - 14"
Greensboro - 9"
Greenville SC - 2" and sleet and freezing rain to .5"
Major Ice Storm down in Piedmont of SC/NC/Northeast GA!

 

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Snow Storm stil on track - who will get the most?

We saw a lot of fluctuation in the models as the all have shifted heavy precip to the south. They *MAY* have brought that further north.

I will continue to watch the models for more accurate adjustments. Some encouraging signs for snow lovers on the American model this evening. It may still be off and too far north. I am still believing Southern 1/3rd of Virginia and Northern Half of North Carolina (and Mountains) to get the heaviest snows and/or ice. Many will still see a significant snow from this.. Major for the VA/NC border area.

Too late to say much more!

All for now!

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With the latest Model Trends it appears a MAJOR WINTER STORM is becoming Likely!

First of all, this is STILL model forecasting! Nothing has happened YET, but I am seeing some good trends towards this event!

As of now, most, if not all, the major models have a significant winter storm for the region.
Snow amounts could be in excess of 1 foot in many locations and at least in the 4 to 8 inch range.
Mountains of SW Virginia MAY end up approaching 2 feet!
North Carolina and Southernmost Virginia will likely see a Severe Ice Storm.

As of now, snow timing will be Friday into Saturday. Snow will start in the Southwest and advance Northeast.

There is still a lot of time, but the potential is high based on consensus in models which I have not seen in a long time.

All for now!

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Nuisance Snow event on the way - Decent snow possible - Not Clear Cut!

This is a tough forecast. I am inclined to be less enthusiastic about snow chances and more sleet and rain. I think along I-95 north of Fredericksburg up to Baltimore and west about 25 miles a general coating, to as much as 2 inches of slop (western border of that area) will occur. The I-15 area north of Charlottesville up in to Maryland could see 2 to 4 inches and areas of higher elevation along I-81 west of Charlottesville up into western Maryland could see totals of 3 to 5 inches. A slight change in storm dynamics and location could up totals by 1 to 3 inches or drop them. This is not clear cut. Based on the time of year a more snowy picture may occur than what I think at this point. If significat changes occur in forecast model analysis I will update later today.

 

Beyond this event a serious rain threatens the area Sunday into Monday and flooding does seem possible.

 
All for now!

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UPDATED: Nuisance of Ice/snow/sleet in Northern Virginia and Maryland

Update. I do not expect the system to turn back to snow. Sorry for the duplicate!

----------------------------------------------

We will see enough of a nuisance of Ice/snow/sleet in Northern Virginia and Maryland for the advisories. I suspect it will not accumulate to 3" in Virginia but some may see that much in Maryland, especially near the MD/PA Border.

A general up to 1" of accumulation seems possible with a bit more to 2" in spots also seems possible.

This will start in the morning and could make the commute terrible.

My thoughts yesterday were not too far off.

So for now, I would say the Northwestern 2/3rds of VA and Maryland will see a wintry mix with snow being more prevalent the further north and west you are. The precip will likely transition to more rain during day hours. This could change, but my best guess is that areas from Warrenton to Dulles Virginia to Towson Maryland could see an inch to as much as 2 inches of snow and slop. Areas North of Towson MD and east of York, PA could see 1 to 4 inches.

For the DC and Baltimore areas I could see up to 1 inch of the stuff. This would be along I -95 down to just north of Fredericksburg and then back to Charlottesville.

Beyond that, a mix coating and then rain eastward and south and east.Mainly rain Southeastern third of VA and All of NC.
 

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