Snow expands north!

It is late in the game and at Night.

I have update http://www.midatlanticweather.com

It is late and I am sorry I do not have time to post all totals!

DC Area - 3 to 6" possible
Roanoke - 8 - 12"
Richmond - 10 - 14+
Norfolk 8 - 12"
Charlottesville - 6 - 10"
Fredericksburg - 4 - 8"
Raleigh - 6 - 8" - Sleet becoming a concern!
Asheville - 12"
Wintergreen - 10 - 14"
Harrisonburg - 8 - 10"

Biggest changes - more mix possible Central NC
Precip has advanced north.

North could see 1 - 3" more than I show if north trends continue.

Map posted at http://www.midatlanticweather.com

Good night!

Storm on track - Hostoric Winter and Snow Storm for Southern Third of VA and a lot of NC!

I would not stray too far from my map for Virginia that I have up on Mid Atlantic Weather. This looks like a Historic event. Snow will start in the evening in the southwest and overspread the southern third of Virginia and the northern half of North carolina. I may say a 1 to 3  inch increase in higher amount locations could occur as the ratios of snow per liquid equivalent will be high! That is rare for that part of the country. Snow will gradually progress north but it seems unlilkely it will make it past the southern DC metro area. Around that area an inch may fall. A very cold day with temps region wide in the 20s tomorrow. North Carolina, South Carolina and Northeast Georgia could see Ice totals up to or over 1 inch. Snow will be cut down in total amounts for the southern half of the state with sleet and freezing rain a real issue down to the South Carolina border. This will be one for the rcord books. Some adjustments may come as the storm gets closer, but those in the warned areas should prepare!

Major Snow Storm on the way for VA/NC - Serious Ice to the south!

Select Cities for an idea!

Richmond - 8"
Bristol - 13"
Roanoke - 8"
Raleigh - 8" - With Sleet too
 Norfolk - 10 - 12" Sleet at first
Charlottesville - 5"
Frederickburg - 3 - 4"
Dulles - 1"
DC - 2"
Asheville - 7" and sleet
Raleigh - 8"
Danville - 14 - 16"
Martinsville - 14 - 16"
Roanoke Rapids - 12 - 14"
Greensboro - 9"
Greenville SC - 2" and sleet and freezing rain to .5"
Major Ice Storm down in Piedmont of SC/NC/Northeast GA!

 

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Snow Storm stil on track - who will get the most?

We saw a lot of fluctuation in the models as the all have shifted heavy precip to the south. They *MAY* have brought that further north.

I will continue to watch the models for more accurate adjustments. Some encouraging signs for snow lovers on the American model this evening. It may still be off and too far north. I am still believing Southern 1/3rd of Virginia and Northern Half of North Carolina (and Mountains) to get the heaviest snows and/or ice. Many will still see a significant snow from this.. Major for the VA/NC border area.

Too late to say much more!

All for now!

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With the latest Model Trends it appears a MAJOR WINTER STORM is becoming Likely!

First of all, this is STILL model forecasting! Nothing has happened YET, but I am seeing some good trends towards this event!

As of now, most, if not all, the major models have a significant winter storm for the region.
Snow amounts could be in excess of 1 foot in many locations and at least in the 4 to 8 inch range.
Mountains of SW Virginia MAY end up approaching 2 feet!
North Carolina and Southernmost Virginia will likely see a Severe Ice Storm.

As of now, snow timing will be Friday into Saturday. Snow will start in the Southwest and advance Northeast.

There is still a lot of time, but the potential is high based on consensus in models which I have not seen in a long time.

All for now!

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Nuisance Snow event on the way - Decent snow possible - Not Clear Cut!

This is a tough forecast. I am inclined to be less enthusiastic about snow chances and more sleet and rain. I think along I-95 north of Fredericksburg up to Baltimore and west about 25 miles a general coating, to as much as 2 inches of slop (western border of that area) will occur. The I-15 area north of Charlottesville up in to Maryland could see 2 to 4 inches and areas of higher elevation along I-81 west of Charlottesville up into western Maryland could see totals of 3 to 5 inches. A slight change in storm dynamics and location could up totals by 1 to 3 inches or drop them. This is not clear cut. Based on the time of year a more snowy picture may occur than what I think at this point. If significat changes occur in forecast model analysis I will update later today.

 

Beyond this event a serious rain threatens the area Sunday into Monday and flooding does seem possible.

 
All for now!

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