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Wednesday, December 30, 2009

UPDATED: Nuisance of Ice/snow/sleet in Northern Virginia and Maryland

Update. I do not expect the system to turn back to snow. Sorry for the duplicate!

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We will see enough of a nuisance of Ice/snow/sleet in Northern Virginia and Maryland for the advisories. I suspect it will not accumulate to 3" in Virginia but some may see that much in Maryland, especially near the MD/PA Border.

A general up to 1" of accumulation seems possible with a bit more to 2" in spots also seems possible.

This will start in the morning and could make the commute terrible.

My thoughts yesterday were not too far off.

So for now, I would say the Northwestern 2/3rds of VA and Maryland will see a wintry mix with snow being more prevalent the further north and west you are. The precip will likely transition to more rain during day hours. This could change, but my best guess is that areas from Warrenton to Dulles Virginia to Towson Maryland could see an inch to as much as 2 inches of snow and slop. Areas North of Towson MD and east of York, PA could see 1 to 4 inches.

For the DC and Baltimore areas I could see up to 1 inch of the stuff. This would be along I -95 down to just north of Fredericksburg and then back to Charlottesville.

Beyond that, a mix coating and then rain eastward and south and east.Mainly rain Southeastern third of VA and All of NC.
 
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Nuisance of Ice/snow/sleet in Northern Virginia and Maryland

We will see enough of a nuisance of Ice/snow/sleet in Northern Virginia and Maryland for the advisories. I suspect it will not accumulate to 3" in Virginia but some may see that much in Maryland, especially near the MD/PA Border.

A general up to 1" of accumulation seems possible with a bit more to 2" in spots also seems possible.

This will start in the morning and could make the commute terrible.

My thoughts yesterday were not too far off.

So for now, I would say the Northwestern 2/3rds of VA and Maryland will see a wintry mix with snow being more prevalent the further north and west you are. The precip will likely transition to more rain during day hours and then back to snow towards evening as the storm begins to get its act together. This could change, but my best guess is that areas from Warrenton to Dulles Virginia to Towson Maryland could see an inch to as much as 2 inches of snow and slop. Areas North of Towson MD and east of York, PA could see 1 to 4 inches.

For the DC and Baltimore areas I could see up to 1 inch of the stuff. This would be along I -95 down to just north of Fredericksburg and then back to Charlottesville.

Beyond that, a mix coating and then rain eastward and south and east.Mainly rain Southeastern third of VA and All of NC.
 
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Friday, December 18, 2009

Historic Snow has begun!!!

MANY areas are now expecting 20 to 30 inches. I updated my amounts a bit ago, but I think I under Did it again!

Blizzard warnings have been issued for parts of the area!

BE Careful!

Tell me what is going on in your back yard on the Forum!

I do expect Blizzard warnings to expand.

Holiday Blizzard 2009! Biggest snow in so many areas for December! WHITE CHRISTMAS on the way!

Being a big weather nut and snow lover, it does not get better than this!

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Winter Storm/Blizzard on track for Mid Atlantic

I have posted a map at Mid Atlantic Weather. I am thinking I may be under-doing it by 4 to as much as 10 inches in parts! I just am concerned that we are seeing an over forecast on models. It is rare to see some output over 20 inches, but it IS possible!

Many likely to see a White Christmas which has not happened in MANY years!

Some thoughts

First Guess:

Virginia
Roanoke: 10 - 12"
Charlottesville : 12 - 14"
Fredericksburg: 12 - 14" some 18"
Dulles - 6 - 10"
Washington DC - 8 to 12"
Richmond: 6 - 10"

Maryland:

Baltimore: 8 - 12"\
Montgomery County - 6-10"

North Carolina:
Asheville: 8 - 12"
Boone: 10 - 12"

 
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Thursday, December 17, 2009

Major/Historic Winter Storm looking likely!!

With the Model trends and the increased consensus on a major winter storm, I have the Second alert of the season! This could be Historic with amounts approaching 20 inches in parts of Virginia and Maryland! This will be starting Saturday Night and go through Sunday.

Just to note: At this point Central Virginia, especially a line centered from Roanoke straight up through Fredericksburg, to Denton Maryland could be the center of the major snow. This has been shifting northward on each model run so it may be a little north and west of this as well. Yes, as much as 18 to 20" of snow may fall here!

A lot of time to refine, but this one looks big.

Of note, I speak of shifting northward on Models, it easily could reverse the trend and head back south. Also, a sharp cut off on major snow is possible and Northern MD could have a light snow while Northern VA gets 12+ inches.

A lot to look at and watch!

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Friday, December 04, 2009

Potential real Winter Storm - Virginia/MD/DC Saturday!

Latest models have come in with a more serious threat of snow! Especially west of I-95! I suspect Winter Storm Watches and Warnings will be posted soon!

All for now!

 
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