UPDATED: Nuisance of Ice/snow/sleet in Northern Virginia and Maryland

Update. I do not expect the system to turn back to snow. Sorry for the duplicate!

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We will see enough of a nuisance of Ice/snow/sleet in Northern Virginia and Maryland for the advisories. I suspect it will not accumulate to 3" in Virginia but some may see that much in Maryland, especially near the MD/PA Border.

A general up to 1" of accumulation seems possible with a bit more to 2" in spots also seems possible.

This will start in the morning and could make the commute terrible.

My thoughts yesterday were not too far off.

So for now, I would say the Northwestern 2/3rds of VA and Maryland will see a wintry mix with snow being more prevalent the further north and west you are. The precip will likely transition to more rain during day hours. This could change, but my best guess is that areas from Warrenton to Dulles Virginia to Towson Maryland could see an inch to as much as 2 inches of snow and slop. Areas North of Towson MD and east of York, PA could see 1 to 4 inches.

For the DC and Baltimore areas I could see up to 1 inch of the stuff. This would be along I -95 down to just north of Fredericksburg and then back to Charlottesville.

Beyond that, a mix coating and then rain eastward and south and east.Mainly rain Southeastern third of VA and All of NC.
 

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Nuisance of Ice/snow/sleet in Northern Virginia and Maryland

We will see enough of a nuisance of Ice/snow/sleet in Northern Virginia and Maryland for the advisories. I suspect it will not accumulate to 3" in Virginia but some may see that much in Maryland, especially near the MD/PA Border.

A general up to 1" of accumulation seems possible with a bit more to 2" in spots also seems possible.

This will start in the morning and could make the commute terrible.

My thoughts yesterday were not too far off.

So for now, I would say the Northwestern 2/3rds of VA and Maryland will see a wintry mix with snow being more prevalent the further north and west you are. The precip will likely transition to more rain during day hours and then back to snow towards evening as the storm begins to get its act together. This could change, but my best guess is that areas from Warrenton to Dulles Virginia to Towson Maryland could see an inch to as much as 2 inches of snow and slop. Areas North of Towson MD and east of York, PA could see 1 to 4 inches.

For the DC and Baltimore areas I could see up to 1 inch of the stuff. This would be along I -95 down to just north of Fredericksburg and then back to Charlottesville.

Beyond that, a mix coating and then rain eastward and south and east.Mainly rain Southeastern third of VA and All of NC.
 

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Historic Snow has begun!!!

MANY areas are now expecting 20 to 30 inches. I updated my amounts a bit ago, but I think I under Did it again!

Blizzard warnings have been issued for parts of the area!

BE Careful!

Tell me what is going on in your back yard on the Forum!

I do expect Blizzard warnings to expand.

Holiday Blizzard 2009! Biggest snow in so many areas for December! WHITE CHRISTMAS on the way!

Being a big weather nut and snow lover, it does not get better than this!

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Winter Storm/Blizzard on track for Mid Atlantic

I have posted a map at Mid Atlantic Weather. I am thinking I may be under-doing it by 4 to as much as 10 inches in parts! I just am concerned that we are seeing an over forecast on models. It is rare to see some output over 20 inches, but it IS possible!

Many likely to see a White Christmas which has not happened in MANY years!

Some thoughts

First Guess:

Virginia
Roanoke: 10 - 12"
Charlottesville : 12 - 14"
Fredericksburg: 12 - 14" some 18"
Dulles - 6 - 10"
Washington DC - 8 to 12"
Richmond: 6 - 10"

Maryland:
Baltimore: 8 - 12"\
Montgomery County - 6-10"

North Carolina:
Asheville: 8 - 12"
Boone: 10 - 12"

 
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Major/Historic Winter Storm looking likely!!

With the Model trends and the increased consensus on a major winter storm, I have the Second alert of the season! This could be Historic with amounts approaching 20 inches in parts of Virginia and Maryland! This will be starting Saturday Night and go through Sunday.

Just to note: At this point Central Virginia, especially a line centered from Roanoke straight up through Fredericksburg, to Denton Maryland could be the center of the major snow. This has been shifting northward on each model run so it may be a little north and west of this as well. Yes, as much as 18 to 20" of snow may fall here!

A lot of time to refine, but this one looks big.

Of note, I speak of shifting northward on Models, it easily could reverse the trend and head back south. Also, a sharp cut off on major snow is possible and Northern MD could have a light snow while Northern VA gets 12+ inches.

A lot to look at and watch!

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Potential real Winter Storm - Virginia/MD/DC Saturday!

Latest models have come in with a more serious threat of snow! Especially west of I-95! I suspect Winter Storm Watches and Warnings will be posted soon!

All for now!

 

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FLOODING RAINS ARE A BIG CONCERN

A very large swath of rain is moving towards the Virginia piedmont from the NC area. This looks potentially very bad based on the soaked grounds!

I am getting very concerned!

 

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Severe possibe and heavy rains!- Some occurring!

Severe weather is possible today. In South Central VA and North Central NC some is already occurring. More is possible, especially if you have had some sunshine!

Heavy Rains are also possible with Flood watches up for North Central Virginia and Maryland up into PA. A few counties under warnings in the Southwestern part of VA.

All For Now!

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Severe Weather and Heavy Rains

There will be the risk of Severe storms and very heavy rainfall this afternoon and evening as a front slowly crosses the area and stalls along the I-95 corridor. Please stay tuned to radio and weather outlets for watches and or warnings.

 

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Severe weather today

Severe weather is likely in the area this afternoon and evening. Some storms will produce High Winds and isolated tornadoes. Heavy rains will accompany storms so that there could be localized flooding. Stay tuned to news and radio outlets for watches and/or warnings!

All for now!

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Severe Stormsa starting to Fire across Norther VA and MD

Expect more as the evening continues. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is up for Northern VA. Maryland, An Much of Eastern PA.

All for now!

 

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Severe weather likely this afternoon

As the sun heats up the atmosphere and a cold front moves through, strong and severe thunderstorms should form. Please stay tuned to news and radio outlets for watches and/or warnings!

All for now!

 

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More severe weather Possible today

With a frontal boundary around the PA/MD border and moist unstable air, thunderstorms are a good bet across the region today. They do not look as widespread as yesterday. Today's best threat will be along and west of the mountains. I do suspect other storms will be severe as well. High winds and hail will be the biggest threat from these storms.

All for now

 

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Severe storms likely! Some storms firing this morning!

I already see a few warnings for Severe Storms and in the DC area the storms are actually building this morning!! After the morning batch, more storms are likely this afternoon as the atmosphere should destabilize further. I also suspect that there will be will be severe storms with high winds and hail being the main threat. Please stay tuned to media and web outlets for watches and/or warnings.

 

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Heavy Rains and Severe Weather today!

The region will be in a volatile set up this afternoon with the possibility of multiple severe storms that could produce damaging winds, hail, and a lot of rain. Please stay tuned to media and weather outlets for the latest news as Watches and Warnings are likely today.

Of Note: A Flash Flood Watch goes into effect at noon today and last through late evening.

 

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Severe Threat increasing in Southeastern VA - Tornado watch up!

Seeing many thunderstorm cells starting to show some rotation in a line that is moving towards Southeastern VA. This has prompted Tornado watches and there have been several severe storm warnings already down in South Central VA. Areas East of 95 from Richmond on down through South Carolina need to be alert!

All for now!

 

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Severe weather possible today

Severe storms will be possible today and are actually already occurring in some locations! Please be alert and stay tuned to weather and media outlets. The biggest threat today will be gusty winds. An isolated tornado could occur.

This is due to a strong front that will usher in much colder air tomorrow!

All for now!

Jimmy

 

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Heavy rains and severe possible today

Heavy rains, high winds, and some severe storms are possible today.

 

Biggest threat from the severe storms will be the winds, but isolated tornadoes are not out of the question.

 

All for now!

 

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Winter Storm Alert! SNOW IS ON THE WAY!

This one will be a big storm. So big, I am going to do a storm map!

Things that really may work for or against us!
1. Storm is too far east - Not bad for everyone!
2. The warmth - As it looks now, areas could see issues along the immediate coastal plain

I am very impressed with the moisture - I suspect areas along and just east of I-95 could be seeing their fist 12" snows on a long time. Baltimore and east over to Delaware - 12 -16"!

This is a big storm. Some of the latest mosels are coming in and are showing the storm lasting into Monday!

Right now, I am expectin areas from Roanoke to Charlottesville to Leesburg to Eastern Frederick county and east to see storm totals 3- 6"

Areas 15 -20 miles west of 95 up to 95 and about 15 to to miles east - 4- 8"

Areas east of this up to 30 miles inland from the coast.. Jackpot! 6 -12" with some areas easily 12 - 14"  (Isolated even higher!)

I suspect that the western edge of heavy snow COULD shift eastward and that would mean the whole area shifts east.. it is also very possible the jackpots could go westward!

This WILL be a high impact event!

Get ready!

 

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Severe Storms on the march

A line of very strong showers with embedded thunderstorms will cross the region overnight! Expect very strong winds and brief heavy rains. We will then have a very gusty wind situation through tomorrow evening! Winds will gust over 60 miles per hour in the mountains and up to 60 in most areas!

All for now!

 

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Winter Weather Alert! Potential for first real snow of 2009!

Tuesday into Wednesday will likely hold the first big storm of the winter.

Scenario: The arctic front will stay south far enough to allow warm moist air to override the colder air and cause snow to break out Tuesday. The moist air will be pumped north by a system that will be pushing the precipitation into the area. The southerly winds will slowly warm the atmosphere and a gradual changeover to ice and rain in the southern region.

As of now:
Maryland and Northern Virginia (North of Lexington to Charlottesville to Fredericksburg to Dover Deleware could see 4 to 8 inches of snow. Closer to Pennsylvania may see as much as 12 inches. The differences in precipitation will be areas that mix with sleet and freezing rain. The further south you get the more likely a mix even to rain will occur.

Central Virginia will have a good amount of snow (2 to 4 Inches) before mix and changeover to rain.

Southern Virginia - South of a Roanoke to Farmville to Richmond to Chincateugue line, will see 1 to 3 inches possible, but a mixing with rain and ice and then rain will stop the accumulations and quickly be washed away.

This is based on the latest guidance and it will likely adjust over time as we get closer to the event.

More to come!

 

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