Severe Analysis

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Wednesday, February 20, 2008

winter Storm Watches posted. Messy Friday into Saturday!

The national weather service has come out with Watches and this looks like a long term icing event starting as snow most areas tomorrow night. The surface cold will mean that the warming taking place aloft will not make it to the surface so Ice will become a dominant type. this will be especially true west of I-95, but MOST areas could see an ice storm before warming.

There are still details to be concerned about. Some models show less precipitation than others. If the less precip pans out, advisory criteria (icing less than .25"would more the likely outcome)

Now, I am thinking that the combination of Ice and Snow will be enough for the storm and we will all need to watch this.

Break down:
I-95 and east - Advisory criteria
I-95 and West - Winter Storm

Snow 1-4" (more western slopes and near PA border)
Ice will be an issue through most of Saturday.

All for now.
 
Mid Atlantic Weather: http://www.midatlanticweather.com
Mid Atlantic Weather Forum: http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3




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Tuesday, February 19, 2008

Light Snow tomorrow. Ice Storm Friday!

Light Snow will overspread the northern Half of Virginia and Maryland tomorrow. 1 to as much a 3 inches will fall, from Fredericksburg northward with the near 3" occurring in Maryland. 3-5" is expected in the higher, western facing, mountains.

Friday could be a very slippery day with widespread icing issues and maybe some accumulating snows. This could include most of the area, especially west of I-95. More northern areas could squeeze out enough snow at the onset to be  Winter Storm Warning Criteria for snow (>4") and then many areas could be under a storm warning for Ice!

Details still coming on the later week storm, but look for snow to overspread the area quickly tomorrow morning and last until evening.
 
Mid Atlantic Weather: http://www.midatlanticweather.com
Mid Atlantic Weather Forum: http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3




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Wednesday, February 13, 2008

Ice troubles continue this morning. Some snow this afternoon!

The ice continues most of the night and has been really a problem for the central piedmont. Be extremely careful especially on secondary streets and walking!

The snow threat this afternoon and evening looks less impressive than I may have thought, but bears watching as models do not get these scenarios correct often. I am not saying we will get more than foretasted, I am saying it is very hard to forecast.

Why was it so much colder? My only real thoughts on this was that the storm that is to the west was not as strong as foretasted which meant the southerly winds were not as strong as thought. These winds would have warmed the atmosphere and switched things to rain yesterday instead of this morning. Also, the secondary low that could  cause some snow this afternoon and evening could affect the scouring of the cold as well.

The week will remain fairly cold with the next threat of wintry weather Sunday night into Tuesday!

All for now!

 
Mid Atlantic Weather: http://www.midatlanticweather.com
Mid Atlantic Weather Forum: http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3




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Ice isses continue for Piedmont - snow tomorrow into tomorrow night!

The cold air will slowly erode, but it is going to take some time so ice will be an issue until morning! In the morning we may see some plain rain before temperatures bottom out a new coastal low forms. There is a chance for 1 - 4" of snow especially I-95 and eastward and especially north of I-95

This was a very strange set up and I missed it as many did! The situation tomorrow is an evolving one and may surprise us again!

I will update as soon as I can!

 
Mid Atlantic Weather: http://www.midatlanticweather.com
Mid Atlantic Weather Forum: http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3




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Tuesday, February 12, 2008

SOME SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN THREAT TODAY

Mainly areas along and Right up against the mountains, especially valley locations, will see a period of light snow today, mixing with and changing to sleet and freezing rain. Accumulations look light but people should be careful because the ground is so cold that it will accumulate and cause trouble when driving. precip will change to rain as the day progresses and should all b rain by this evening. Areas today affected will be just west of I-95 with more accumulations the closer you are to the mountains. Some sleet will mix in at the onset of most precipitation area wide.

Tomorrow night bears some watching as a quick burst of snow may occur over eastern regions! More to come on that!
 
Mid Atlantic Weather: http://www.midatlanticweather.com
Mid Atlantic Weather Forum: http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3




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