12/15 Winter Weather Alert

Significant Icing likely for some. I-95 areas should be spared the worst

 

Cold air has really stuck well in many areas. Anyone east of the Mountains and in the Mountain valleys up to about 25 miles west of  I-95 from Baltimore to Fredericksburg and then 25 miles west of a line from Fredericksburg to Danville should see a significant Ice storm! Ice accrual will be .25 to .5”, which will be substantial enough for power outages and definitely driving problems. About 25 miles either side of that same line could see .15 to .20” of accrual. This will be hazardous as well, but also will be limited by a turnover to rain later today or this evening.

 

The Mountains from Hot Springs area northward should see a 3-6” snow with mixing of sleet a freezing rain as well. That snow will help offset some of the worst issues with the ice.

 

 

For many areas in the Southwestern Part of the state, the precipitation has already begun.

 

I expect the Northern areas will see precipitation by noon.

Precip will start as snow for most, and then mix over quickly to sleet and then Freezing rain.

 

Be Careful!

 

 

Great School in Northern Virginia. http://www.ambleside.org

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12/14 Winter Weather Alert: UPDATED

Winter Weather Event will likely cause problems in the Mountains, and with commutes

 

What?

A Mixture of Snow and Sleet as well as freezing rain will hamper the Morning commute tomorrow, but the extent of the frozen precip will be lessened as the storm system is expected to run more inland as it comes towards the area. Expect most areas to see a brief mix with a quick turnover to rain. This will not be as likely far western sections of Maryland

 

A very Heavy rain event tomorrow evening for areas that see ice outside of far western Mayland and Far western Virginia, this will likley melt it!

 

Where?

Most areas will see a quick shot of some sleet and snow quickly changing to rain and freezing rain. Freezing rain will persist in the mountainous areas especially the valleys, of Virginia and Maryland. Some higher elevation of far western areas will see snow (VA and MD) and then some Ice. Snow in central and Western Pennsylvania, though Far SW PA will see a mix and even rain for a while. This storm will not be a big icing event east of the mountains.

Some thoughts on amounts:

Western Maryland (Hagerstown) could see 2-4”.. then sleet and freezing rain.. west of and including this region could see a significant Ice Storm

 

Far Western Loudoun: 1-2” Snow then Sleet and Freezing rain and rain ..

Shenandoah valley, North of Hot Springs: 1-2” snow.. then ice and sleet.. to rain.. back to snow briefly

Coastal plains east of I-95 will see little mix to quick rain.

 

I-95 cities and west to immediate Piedmont, north of Fredericksburg could see a light coating

 

Cites west of a Fredericksburg to Lynchburg line could see some coating of ice early, then a mix over to rain.

 

 

When? Starting Thursday Early Morning South overspreading northern areas by Late Morning

 

Comments: This system has taken on much more of a warm look. The issue will be that a little precip will cause huge problems tomorrow as it is these minor events that can snarl traffic for hours!  The Ground, especially in Northern Virginia, is frozen and many stations are reporting road temps below freezing. Long and short.. not a big event, but a big headache is possible tomorrow morning depending on when the storm starts

 

As noted, I do not have time to update the mp, but it looks wrong now!

 

Of Note: Large potential Snow Storm early next week! Details are still being worked out!

Great School in Northern Virginia. http://www.ambleside.org

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12/13 DC/MD/VA Winter Weather Alert

What?

Significant Icing event. Moderate Icing event and Light Icing event

Some Accumulating Snows

 

Where?

Significant Icing: Immediate Piedmont: Maryland, Virginia, North Carolina

Major Icing: Immediate Piedmont to 35 miles west of I-95; Maryland, Virginia

North  Carolina : West Central NC

Light Icing: I-95 to about 35 miles west of  I-95: West Central NC

Snows: Higher elevations of Northern Virginia and Western Maryland. A large Part of Pennsylvania, West 40 miles west of I-95

 

When? Starting Thursday Early Morning South overspreading northern areas by Late Morning

 

Comments: Tough call in many ways. A lot of precip will fall over very shallow cold air. The Warm air appears to truly Surge over the area and warm areas close to or above freezing. There is a chance for significant rains as well. If things stay frozen, ice storm conditions could be reached by a lot more areas than what I am indicating on my first guess map. May issue a follow up call tomorrow night.. but my guess may be all the time I have to do.

 

http://mawinterweather.blogspot.com

 

Of Note: Large potential Snow Storm early next week!

Great School in Northern Virginia. http://www.ambleside.org

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12/8 Late in the game: Last Call

My final thoughts on this one!

 

Charlottesville: 3-5" - Sleet a real possibility. Starting 8-10pm
Roanoke: 1-3" Icing concerns. May reach Ice Storm criteria 
Lynchburg 1"  Icing concerns. May reach Ice Storm criteria 
Richmond: Rain

Fredericksburg: 2-4" Snow.. then Sleet and Freezing Rain Starting 8-11pm
DC National: 2-4" Snow.. then Sleet and Freezing Rain Starting 8-11pm
Baltimore: 3-5" Snow.. then Sleet and Freezing Rain Starting 9-Midnight

Dulles: 3-5" - Sleet a real possibility. 8-11pm

Hagerstown: 4-8" (maybe 10") Starting 8-11pm
Purcellville: 4-8" Starting 8-11pm

 

Please note.. this is a dynamic system.. it could compensate for some warmth that it is en-training off the ocean and cause places to shift between snow and sleet and freezing rain. If we get Thunderstorms( a possibility) we will see higher totals of precip in whatever type is falling on you! That could be interesting!

 

Visuals at http://mawinterweather.blogspot.com

 

 

 

Great School in Northern Virginia. http://www.ambleside.org

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12/8 Winter Weather Alert

Winter Weather Alert!

 

 

What? Winter Storm with mix and potential Ice Storm scenarios for regions.

 

When? Tonight into Friday

 

Where? Northern 1/3^rd of the area, specifically Northern Virginia and Maryland , North of Fredericksburg and 25 mile either side of I-95 to see a mix of Freezing rain, sleet, and snow. More Snow Possible Far Northwestern Virginia and West of central Frederick County Maryland.  Central regions, just east of the Mountains and south of  a Fredericksburg to a Charlottesville line down to Roanoke area may meet ice storm criteria due to cold air damming.

 

How Much?

Mixed areas: 1-2 inches of snow and then a slop eastern side (I-95 and east), 2-4” western side, were more sleet will be involved verses Freezing rain.  

Areas staying all snow should see a healthy 4-8” with potential 10”+ amounts in spots.

There are signs of potential thunderstorms which will enhance precip types in all areas, and may add to totals of snow as dynamics could offset warmer air aloft.

 

Comments: This storm is still a quick mover and will give areas a quick change from no precipitation to serious amounts very quickly. Some early runs this morning indicate the possibility of less mixing. This leads me to think we could see more snow just west of I-95.. still the same regions.. north of Fredericksburg, west of  I-95.

 

More to come:

 

 

 

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12/7 .. DC/MD/VA Winter Weather Alert!

Quick hitting snowstorm will commence in the region later tomorrow through noon Friday. Southern 1/3rd of the region should see a mix to sleet and freezing rain and then rain. Norther 2/3rds a General 3-6" but chances for 2 things.. A dry slotting during energy transfers and a chance for thundersnow or convective banding which could either lessen ior intensify snow amounts..

 

Much to watch.. Take this as aGuess! That is all it is!

 

http://mawinterweather.blogspot.com

 

Great School in Northern Virginia. http://www.ambleside.org

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12/6 Winter Weather Alert for Thurday/Friday

Here we go again!

 

Winter Weather Alert!

 

I will be getting some input form a met on my official snow total releases this time!

 

What? A potential significant Winter Strom

 

When? Thursday into Friday

 

Where? At least the Southern 2/3rds of the region. Especially west of I-95.. and very likely most if not all the region.. will be fine tuning

 

How Much? Potential for larger amounts of snow than the last! There are signs some regions could get a foot. Early call though

 

Comments: Unlike last storm where models were truly opposed to each other about the system, this one has some more consensus. I am gun shy this time, but must bring attention to the storm and that it could have a lot of moisture as it will come out of the Gulf of Mexico ( For met people.. this is a Miller A)!

 

More to come:

 

Storm Post Mortem posted to http://mawinterweather.blogspot.com

 

 

Great School in Northern Virginia. http://www.ambleside.org

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12/5 Final Call Maps on 12/5 -12/6 system

This really Bucks the Models! Serious bust potential here!

This still looks pretty good, but start times!

Charlottesville: 5-10" Starting 7-10am

Roanoke: 5-10"+ (Some spots 12") Starting 4-9am

Lynchburg 4-8" Starting 4-9am

Richmond: 3-6" (Lots of Mixing with rain)  Starting 9am - noon

Fredericksburg: 5-10" Starting 10am to 1pm

DC National: 5-10" Starting 11am - 1pm

Baltimore: 5-10" Startng 11am - 2pm

IAD: 5-10" Starting 11am-1pm

Hagerstown: 4-8" Starting 11am-1pm

Purcellville: 4-8" Starting 11-1pm

Few things on this:

1. Think Storm will be further west than models 

2. See good Wrap around/deformation zone possible

3. Expecting a closer to the coast pull ultimately

 

http://mawinterweather.blogspot.com

Great School in Northern Virginia. http://www.ambleside.org

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12/4 First Call Maps.. First call amounts

Ok. This is my first call, likely final call after next Model runs.Giving some Locations and amounts!
Charlottesville: 5-10" Starting Early Afternoon
Roanoke: 5-10"+ (Some spots 12") Starting 7-9am
Lynchburg 4-8" Starting 7-9am
Richmond: 3-6" Starting 9am - noon
Fredericksburg: 5-10" Starting noon to 3pm
DC National: 5-10" Starting 3-6pm
Baltimore: 5-10" Startng 5-8pm
IAD: 5-10" Starting 3-6pm
Hagerstown: 4-8" Starting 3-6pm
Purcellville: 4-8" Starting 3-6pm

Few things on this:
1. Think Storm will be further west
2. See good Wrap around/deformation zone possible
3. Expecting a closer to the coast pull ultimately

 

http://mawinterweather.blogspot.com

Great School in Northern Virginia. http://www.ambleside.org

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2nd Guess! Posted!

http://mawinterweather.blogspot.com

 

 

Great School in Northern Virginia. http://www.ambleside.org

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12/3 Winter Weather Alert! For TONIGHT's storm

Final Call map out at http://mawinterweather.blogspot.com

 

Second storm looking like a classic I-95 Storm now!

 

 

Great School in Northern Virginia. http://www.ambleside.org

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12/3 DC/MD/VA Snow Alert UPDATED!! Shift SOUTH possible!

Snow Alert UPDATED!! Shift SOUTH possible!

 

The trends of the models has been to shift heavier snow southward! Based on this, lighter Snows would be expected north of Fredericksburg to Charlottesville areas. South of this down to Richmond and southwestward to Lynchburg could really be under the gun for a significant snow.  This is based on the models at this time. A new map will be issued later today or this evening. My thinking is that a pull to the north may occur.. but realistically, it could even shift further south!

 

Please Stay Tuned!

Great School in Northern Virginia. http://www.ambleside.org

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First Guess for Monday'S Event

First Guess.. Latest Models have shifed South!

 

http://mawinterweather.blogspot.com/

Great School in Northern Virginia. http://www.ambleside.org

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12/2 DC/MD/VA Winter Weather Alert

First Real Snow Chances for the Region Monday. Appetizer tomorrow Night.

 

** Sorry to those that receive this twice. Alerts will just go to the alert email address after this one.

 

What?

2 Systems will affect the region between Today and Tuesday with Winter weather

 

System 1: No big deal, but a burst of snow and sleet should occur tomorrow evening that should last until Midnight.

 

System 2: Significant chance of a real snowstorm.

 

Where?

System 1: Northern 2/3rds of Virginia and Western Maryland. The Snow should change to rain for most regions, but North Central Maryland and the Northwestern part of Virginia.

 

System 2: All regions could see some snow, but again, best chances appear to be northern 2/3rds of Virginia, and western 2/3rds of Maryland. Snow should overtake the region and then a mix to rain, very quickly southern regions, and slowly a creep northward and westward. Right now would call for I-95 areas north of Frederickburg to see a moderate event, while areas west of this by 15 to 20 miles will see a potentially major storm.

 

How Much?

System 1: Dusting most areas at best, but 1 to as much as 3 inches in the areas staying snow or a mix. Grassy and elevated surfaces only.

 

System 2: (First Guess here) Potential exists for the Moderate areas to see 3 to 5 inches and the Major areas (mainly snow) to see 5 to 10 inches with some 12 inch readings in the higher elevations and immediate piedmont areas of Northern Virginia (North of Charlottesville and  western Maryland).

 

When?

System 1: Saturday late day through Midnight for most regions, but the areas mentioned where accumulations could occur will be through Sunday Morning.

 

System 2: Sunday Night through Monday.. possibly stretching to early Tuesday morning.

 

Comments: System 1 will not be a big deal. System 2 seriously could be, but we are early in the game on this! Shifts in the track obviously mean chances for more or less snow. As models converge on the system, updates will come. Also of note, roads are warm so salt will do a good job on helping melt the snow.

 

Expect snow impact Maps possibly tonight or tomorrow morning.. First Guess on Accumulations afternoon or evening tomorrow.

 

All for Now!

Great School in Northern Virginia. http://www.ambleside.org

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