Severe Analysis

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Tuesday, November 29, 2005

11/29 DC/MD/VA Severe Weather Alert

Severe Storms Possible Today:
 
There is a possibility of some thunderstorms today, some of which could produce severe winds. Overall, the day will be very windy and very rainy, especially later this morning into the mid evening.
 
OF NOTE: Our weather could get interesting Sunday into Monday... Maybe more likely next Tuesday into Wednesday. A lot of model discrepancies, but there appears to be the first real shot of a winter storm in the region during that time period! Of course, I will keep all posted.
 
 


Great School in Northern Virginia. http://www.ambleside.org


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Wednesday, November 23, 2005

11/23 DC/MD/VA Snow Showers!

I understand there were snow showers around yesterday evening for people east of the mountains, well it appears this possibility is becoming more likely overnight tonight. It appears that a clipper system (quick moving storms from Canada) will quickly overtake the area this evening and areas west of 95, especially the northern Half of Virginia and all of western MD, will see some brief, wind whipped, snow showers tonight. There may be enough now to whiten the ground in spots, but, typically these storms do not drop much snow for the region. The result tomorrow, will be very cold and windy conditions tomorrow!
 
Of note, the Great Lakes will be providing serious amounts of Lake Effect Snow the next few days! Also, northern New England  will also see some good snows.
 
This is just a Holiday sampler!
 
There were signs that a true snowstorm may take shape next week. The last several model runs have started to change the direction and may actually bring in warmer temperatures. I will keep you posted if things change!
 
Happy Thanksgiving!
 


Great School in Northern Virginia. http://www.ambleside.org


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Saturday, November 19, 2005

11/19 DC/MD/VA Weather Outlook with Potential Snow in the forecast!


Well, a little earlier than I expected, but not without excited hopes, winter appears to have arrived and is already giving us excitement and near misses! A very windy wet (and mountain snowy) system looks ready to give us a close call Monday into Tuesday! Winds and rain could change to snow briefly at the end as very cold air gets wrapped in. This system appears to push the North Atlantic Oscillation NEGATIVE, which means COLDER conditions to follow and stay for a bit. It also means, storms COULD have potential to cause snow and as soon as Thanksgiving! Also another large low may visit next weekend or early the following week. Gamma formed!

Apologies to those who receive this twice! With the upupcomingravel holiday and the first chances of wintry weather, I felt it was good to let alallnow of the potential for inclement weather!
 
Summary:  Well, without real foreknowledge, the pattern WILL switch to a winter one and stay that way for a bit! It looks like the very powerful storm Monday into Tuesday will ultimately assist in bring very cold temperatures to the region and know the North Atlantic Oscillation Negative. (get ready for many travel issues for those headed out of town) The pattern will also have a good Pacific North American Pattern and if you are wondering what all this means.. it gives us a good chance to get winter weather! Do not write off Monday and Tuesday's storm as an all rain event, especially higher elevations which could see a significant snowfall, and other areas could see a turnover before the end of the storm! Thursday, yet another system approaches and I-95 cities and west could see some snow! Then the pattern is ready with another potential larger storm sometime between Next Friday and next Tuesday, and I do believe many may see their first REAL significant snow! Crazy summer of Tropical systems is turning into a crazy early winter.. even with the warm fall!
 
Tropics: Tropicl Storm Gamma is packing 45mph winds! Amazing historic tropical season lives on!
 
The look out for Winter: The Lookout is about to end in reality! The pattern of a Negative NAO and Positive PNA could not be better for a wintry east coast!  This should be a busy week!
 
Thanks to all who continue to post to the Forum. The community posts should SKYROCKET as we head towards our first winter systems! Our community has grown to 27 members. http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3/
 
Did you know? I send this update out semi regularly via email! To get it send and email to midatlanticweather-subscribe@yahoogroups.com I also send a Severe Weather Alert when we need it. To get it mid-atlanticweather-subscribe@yahoogroups.com I am considering a tropical only list as well.
 
 
Forecast text and graphics from National Weather Service. Mid Atlantic Weather com is not responsible for accuracy of these forecasts and may not be
held liable for any damages caused by using this web site. Data may not be current therefore the user agrees to always rely upon official forecast products
for their area provided by the National Weather Service.


Great School in Northern Virginia. http://www.ambleside.org


Yahoo! FareChase - Search multiple travel sites in one click.

11/19 DC/MD/VA Weather Outlook with Potential Snow in the forecast!


Well, a little earlier than I expected, but not without excited hopes, winter appears to have arrived and is already giving us excitement and near misses! A very windy wet (and mountain snowy) system looks ready to give us a close call Monday into Tuesday! Winds and rain could change to snow briefly at the end as very cold air gets wrapped in. This system appears to push the North Atlantic Oscillation NEGATIVE, which means COLDER conditions to follow and stay for a bit. It also means, storms COULD have potential to cause snow and as soon as Thanksgiving! Also another large low may visit next weekend or early the following week. Gamma formed!

Apologies to those who receive this twice! With the upupcomingravel holiday and the first chances of wintry weather, I felt it was good to let alallnow of the potential for inclement weather!
 
Summary:  Well, without real foreknowledge, the pattern WILL switch to a winter one and stay that way for a bit! It looks like the very powerful storm Monday into Tuesday will ultimately assist in bring very cold temperatures to the region and know the North Atlantic Oscillation Negative. (get ready for many travel issues for those headed out of town) The pattern will also have a good Pacific North American Pattern and if you are wondering what all this means.. it gives us a good chance to get winter weather! Do not write off Monday and Tuesday's storm as an all rain event, especially higher elevations which could see a significant snowfall, and other areas could see a turnover before the end of the storm! Thursday, yet another system approaches and I-95 cities and west could see some snow! Then the pattern is ready with another potential larger storm sometime between Next Friday and next Tuesday, and I do believe many may see their first REAL significant snow! Crazy summer of Tropical systems is turning into a crazy early winter.. even with the warm fall!
 
Tropics: Tropicl Storm Gamma is packing 45mph winds! Amazing historic tropical season lives on!
 
The look out for Winter: The Lookout is about to end in reality! The pattern of a Negative NAO and Positive PNA could not be better for a wintry east coast!  This should be a busy week!
 
Thanks to all who continue to post to the Forum. The community posts should SKYROCKET as we head towards our first winter systems! Our community has grown to 27 members. http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3/
 
Did you know? I send this update out semi regularly via email! To get it send and email to midatlanticweather-subscribe@yahoogroups.com I also send a Severe Weather Alert when we need it. To get it mid-atlanticweather-subscribe@yahoogroups.com I am considering a tropical only list as well.
 
 
Forecast text and graphics from National Weather Service. Mid Atlantic Weather com is not responsible for accuracy of these forecasts and may not be
held liable for any damages caused by using this web site. Data may not be current therefore the user agrees to always rely upon official forecast products
for their area provided by the National Weather Service.


Great School in Northern Virginia. http://www.ambleside.org


Yahoo! FareChase - Search multiple travel sites in one click.

Wednesday, November 16, 2005

11/16 Severe Weather Possible.. Winds most likely

Severe Weather Alert
 
Fortunately the passing of the front today will not be after maximum heating or the chances of severe storms would be higher. Despite this, even a heavy shower could mix Down very strong winds and that alone could cause severe wind gusts up to 60 mph. The NWS did issue a Wind Advisory as we will see a big change in the weather.
 
Please stay tuned... Despite the threat not being as strong. There is the possibility of some severe storms and isolated tornadoes.
 
This will be the start of what could be a very cold period. We may see winter weather the week after Thanksgiving. More to come!
 
 


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Sunday, November 06, 2005

11/6 DC/MD/VA Severe Weather Alert

Severe Storms possible with strong winds and isolated Tornadoes
 
Dynamics in the atmosphere will be conducive for Severe storms as a strong cold front moves through the area. The Strong front could produce severe storms with the risk of high winds and even tornadoes.
 
Please stay tuned to media and weather outlets for watches and/or warnings.
 


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