4/15 DC/MD/VA Severe Weather Alert

Severe Weather Alert:

 

There is a risk of Severe Storms today. Biggest threat will be winds and hail but there is a risk of some isolated tornadoes.

 

The Risk will also exist tomorrow.

 

Stay tuned to radio and news outlets

4/3 Alert: Severe threat will increase

As the day wears on there will be some breaks in the clouds. A very dynamic atmosphere is set up ac cross the region and Super Cell thunderstorms (rotating) will likely form in some areas.  This should increase the chance for damaging winds, hail and even tornadoes. Please stay alert to news and radio as watches and warnings are likely to be posted in the later afternoon.

 

All for now.

 

Jimmy

A little snow. Not much!

Many north of a Fredericksburg to Charlottesville line up to Baltimore will see a little snow tomorrow. Ground temps will be warm. Expecting nothing more than a dusting to an inch or so.

 

There could be slightly more near Charlottesville and in the higher elevations.

 

2" would be the max for low elevations and not much will fall in Northern Maryland.

 

Hey.. it is Late March!

 

There is a slight possibility of another storm this weekend that could cause snow.. but I am not very confident in the idea and again higher elevations would see the real threat.

 

We need rain in the region as we are very, very dry!

 
 

Great School in Northern Virginia. http://www.ambleside.org

Colder than normal temps + a southern storm= SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE!

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Colder than normal temps + a southern storm= SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE!

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Summary:  Wow! Here we go with another chance of snow! Anyone remember temps last weekend?  That is right! Give the weather a week and things can chage. The Combining features. A strong 1040MB High (Impressive this time of year) in Canada and a southern storm. So many things work against accumulating snow in areas east of the mountains this time of year!

1. Warm ground
2. Warm sun
3. Long daylight hours
4. Climatology

 

BUT.. there are exceptions to every situation! And this may be the exception! Right now, the most favored areas are higher elevations, especially north of Charlottesville. Higher elevations could see 3-6” and lower elevations 1-3”. Areas west of I-95 north of Fredericksburg to Charlottesville seem more likely to me than anywhere else to see snow (other than the mountains of course)

 

Longer term appears to remain below normal to near normal temps and continued dry.

 

   

Thanks to all who continue to post to the Forum. The community has grown to 44 members. http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3/

 

Did you know? I send this update out semi regularly via email! To get it send and email to midatlanticweather-subscribe@yahoogroups.com I also send a Severe Weather Alert when we need it. To get it mid-atlanticweather-subscribe@yahoogroups.com I am considering a tropical only list as well.

 

Great Host! Vodahost.. 12000 MB of space,  unlimited domains, unlimited email accounts! http://www.vodahost.com?a_aid=0048a41a

 

 

 

Forecast text and graphics from National Weather Service. Mid Atlantic Weather com is not responsible for accuracy of these forecasts and may not be held liable for any damages caused by using this web site. Data may not be current therefore the user agrees to always rely upon official forecast products for their area provided by the National Weather Service.

 

Great School in Northern Virginia. http://www.ambleside.org

A little snow after 85 degree weather! Wow!

Later tonight in areas mainly North of Fredericksburg to Charlottesville and west of I-95 may see a bit of snow! Snow could set up in a narrow band and cause heavier accumulations (up to 3" on grassy areas in higher elevations), but mainly a dusting for most who see it.. Road and ground temperatures are pretty warm so this will not cause major issues except maybe some of the higher elevations.

 

Temperatures will remain cool through the weekend and another rain/snow mixing type scenario may unfold next week. That is iffy as of now.

 

85 degree temps to snow in 4 days! Wow!

 

All for now!

 
 

Great School in Northern Virginia. http://www.ambleside.org

Severe Storms Possible and a Switch Back to colder weather =(

Severe Storms Possible Today

 

After a beautiful weekend we will have a strong front coming through the area this evening and overnight. Preceding this front will be record or near record warmth in the mid and upper 80s. The sharp contrast in temperatures is a focus line for strong to severe storms. The biggest threat will be high winds and hail, but isolated tornadoes are not out of the question. The biggest threat time will be between 5pm tonight and 1am tomorrow morning.

 

Unfortunately this is a signal to colder temps for the rest of the week. There is even a chance of some snow Thursday night in parts of the region!

 

All for now.

 

 

2/22 Some Areas of heavy/moderate snow and accumlations

Snow is falling rather moderately to sometimes heavy north and western regions! Reports in the far west and slightly elevated areas have 3-5". There appears to be a chance that grassy areas could have 1-2" where it is snowing moderately now!

 

When snow is moderate and heavy, slushy to snow covered roads have been reported! Stay safe. I can see the western edge of the precipitation on radar advancing eastward so things will likely end between 10 and 11 am.

 

Great School in Northern Virginia. http://www.ambleside.org

2/21 Increased Risk for Light Snow Tomorrow

There is an increased risk of light snow in the morning tomorrow as a southern weather disturbance passes through the area. The increased risk will be for areas where precip begins before sunrise. The reason for increasing the risk is the colder temperatures that are already in place as the area is under ideal radiational cooling. Best risk of light accumulations would be Virginia west of a Charlottesville to Roanoke line. I am not expecting more that a dusting to an inch in these areas, but roads could be cold making commutes rough. For the rest of the area, the risk is there that precip could start before dawn. If it does, allow extra time as small events like these are usually the roughest commutes! Once the sun is up, temps appear to rise to start melting and even could transition precip to rain in areas. IF precip begins before sunrise, the rise in temps could be slower.

 

Be careful!

 

Of note, we will have the coldest air of the season Sunday and Monday followed by a continues cooler than normal period. In the 7-10 day period there are signals of a potential significant winter storm!

 

All for now!
 

Great School in Northern Virginia. http://www.ambleside.org

2/18 Light Snow possible today

Already snowing in Southwestern VA and western NC. Expect up to an inch in most spots. In Southwestern 1-3" with isolated 4" amounts higher elevations seems possible. Best accumulations will be on car tops and grassy areas!

 

Snow chances best from Charlottesville to Fredericksburg to Salisbury and south. Best chance of Accumlations, 30 miles either side of a Dublin to Roanoke to Richmond line.

 

up to an inch possible.

 

1-3" Southwestern VA where snow started around sunrise!

 

All for now!
 

Great School in Northern Virginia. http://www.ambleside.org

2/11 2/12 Final Call

2/11 2/12 Final Call

 

Hagerstown: 4-8”
Frederick, MD: 4-8”
Montgomery, MD: 5-9”
Baltimore: 6-10”
D.C: 6-10” (Maybe some sleet/rain at start)
Dulles: 4-8” (Maybe some sleet)
Fredericksburg: 6-10” (Maybe some sleet)
Salisbury: 1-3” then Rain
Richmond: 3-6” (Mixing with rain and sleet)
Williamsburg 1-3” (Mixing with sleet and rain)
Emporia: Mix then rain
VA Beach: Rain (Sorry stormy!  )
Martinsburg: 3-6” (Some Sleet)
Roanoke: 3-6”
Charlottesville: 4-8”
Leesburg: 4-8”

 

Heaviest snow arrives morning far SW

Late Morning Southwest

1-4 PM Richmod and Fredericksburg

5-8 PM DC and Baltmore

 

 

See Final Map at http://mawinterweather.blogspot.com

 

or

 

http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=1008.0;attach=43;image

 

 

Great School in Northern Virginia. http://www.ambleside.org

2/10 SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM CONTINUES ON TRACK FOR THIS WEEKEND

SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM CONTINUES ON TRACK FOR THIS WEEKEND

 

What: All models are showing what should become a significant snow storm for the mid Atlantic Region this weekend.

 

When: Starting overnight Friday in the southwestern regions and spreading over the northern areas by late afternoon Saturday

 

How Much: Well, ranges in precip come in between 3-6” (Further South and west) and  4-8” (Further North and even east).. Some areas **COULD** see amounts in the 10” range.

Where:

I-95 areas and about 40 miles either side of it may be the jackpot areas until you get midway between Richmond and Fredericksburg, where you should pull the rain/snow line back west to western North Carolina.

Southeastern Virginia, from Just west of Richmond to Danville and the areas east should see a mix and the closer to the coast a changeover to rain. (Like Williamsburg to the Eastern Shore and Lower Southern Maryland)

 

This will be fine tuned… and I hope a map later tonight.

 

Amount Highlights:

Hagerstown: 3-6”

Frederick, MD: 3-6”

Montgomery, MD: 3-6”

Baltimore: 4-8”

D.C: 3-6” (Maybe some sleet/rain at start)

Dulles: 3-6” (Maybe some sleet)

Fredericksburg: 3-6” (Maybe some sleet)

Salisbury: 1-2” then Rain

Richmond: 1-2” (Mixing with rain and sleet)

Williamsburg 1-2” (Mixing with sleet and rain)

Emporia: Trace then rain

VA Beach: Few flakes then rain

Martinsburg: 3-6” (Some Sleet)

Roanoke: 3-6”

Charlottesville: 3-6”

Leesburg: 3-6”

 

Hopefully this gives you some idea of my thoughts!

 

 

Concerns:

1. System bombing out and timing will make all the difference! I am thinking Maryland near Baltimore could be closer to 10”+ amounts
2. The speed of movement is in question to an extent. Speed will make all the difference as well.
3. A dry slot could develop in areas which will drop amounts
4. time of day is not favorable for best accumulations.
5. Any convective activity will up amounts in some regions… yes… Thundersnow!
6. Still worried about a Southeastward shift in storm track. One of the latest models confirmed this concern.

 

All for now!

 www.midatlanticweather.com

 

Great School in Northern Virginia. http://www.ambleside.org

SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM ON TRACK FOR THIS WEEKEND

SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM ON TRACK FOR THIS WEEKEND

 

What: All models are showing what should become a significant snow storm for the Mid Atlantic Region this weekend.

 

When: Starting overnight Friday in the southwestern regions and spreading over the northern areas by late afternoon Saturday

 

How Much: Well, ranges in precip come in between 3-5” for a large area with some higher spots likely seeing 4-8”. It does appear that there will be a sharp cut off on the western edge so the mountains and westward may really miss the heavier snows as well as the immediate piedmont areas of Western Maryland and Northern Virginia. Please note there could be some higher amounts within the jack pot areas as well. A lot to watch!

 

Where:

I-95 areas and about 30 miles either side of it may be the jackpot areas until you get just south of Richmond where you should pull the rain/snow line back west to western North Carolina.

Southeastern Virginia and the areas east of 30 miles or so east of I-95 should see a mix and the closer to the coast a changeover to rain.

Western and north of areas from Leesburg down to Charlottesville and then Southwestward towards Bristol could see a rapid drop off in snow amounts, but this is too detailed and could change

 

This will be fine tuned.

 

Concerns:

1. True model Consensus is not there yet.
2. Amounts will be hard to determine until the models handle some of the phasing of the systems better
3. Could see a further north and west pull of warm air if the system gets stronger, thus putting I-95 corridor in jeopardy of a changeover
4. There is also the possibility the storm stays further South and East which would limit Northern and Western area snows.. As noted, there could be a sharp cut off in snow to the west.

 

All for now!

 

Jimmy

http://www.midatlanticweather.com

 

Great School in Northern Virginia. http://www.ambleside.org

2/8 Winter Storm Is Possible This Weekend!

Latest Models and trends show a moderate risk for a significant snow storm this weekend. This is the first model run to have consensus on the system, and there are many questions concerning the storm! I will do an official alert later tonight or early tomorrow morning. For now you can read the eveolution of this system at http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3/index.php?topic=1008.0

 

All for Now
 

Great School in Northern Virginia. http://www.ambleside.org

1/13 DC/MD/VA Severe and winter weather alert

The first things first: Severe weather possible overnight. Very strong winds tomorrow. Possible period of snow tomorrow night (Northern areas and Appalachians, mainly west of I-p5 and north of Fredericksburg.

 

Biggest threat tonight is high winds but isolated tornadoes are possible.

 

All I have time for now!

 

Great School in Northern Virginia. http://www.ambleside.org

1/2 DC/MD/VA Severe Weather Alert

Severe weather possible today.

A strong cold front will combine with a developing low pressure to cause widespread heavy rains and some strong to severe thunderstorms today. The best chances for severe weather will be the Southern areas of Virginia and especially North Carolina. Areas just east of the mountains may be stable enough to prevent the severe weather. The biggest threat would be strong winds and hail, but conditions in North Carolina (and limited elsewhere) does appear to be able to support tornadoes!

Please stay alert to weather and media outlets for watches or warnings.

Of note, this morning temperatures in the northern parts of the mountain valleys has been cold enough fro some freezing rain.

All for now!
 

Great School in Northern Virginia. http://www.ambleside.org

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12/15 Winter Weather Alert

Significant Icing likely for some. I-95 areas should be spared the worst

 

Cold air has really stuck well in many areas. Anyone east of the Mountains and in the Mountain valleys up to about 25 miles west of  I-95 from Baltimore to Fredericksburg and then 25 miles west of a line from Fredericksburg to Danville should see a significant Ice storm! Ice accrual will be .25 to .5”, which will be substantial enough for power outages and definitely driving problems. About 25 miles either side of that same line could see .15 to .20” of accrual. This will be hazardous as well, but also will be limited by a turnover to rain later today or this evening.

 

The Mountains from Hot Springs area northward should see a 3-6” snow with mixing of sleet a freezing rain as well. That snow will help offset some of the worst issues with the ice.

 

 

For many areas in the Southwestern Part of the state, the precipitation has already begun.

 

I expect the Northern areas will see precipitation by noon.

Precip will start as snow for most, and then mix over quickly to sleet and then Freezing rain.

 

Be Careful!

 

 

Great School in Northern Virginia. http://www.ambleside.org

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12/14 Winter Weather Alert: UPDATED

Winter Weather Event will likely cause problems in the Mountains, and with commutes

 

What?

A Mixture of Snow and Sleet as well as freezing rain will hamper the Morning commute tomorrow, but the extent of the frozen precip will be lessened as the storm system is expected to run more inland as it comes towards the area. Expect most areas to see a brief mix with a quick turnover to rain. This will not be as likely far western sections of Maryland

 

A very Heavy rain event tomorrow evening for areas that see ice outside of far western Mayland and Far western Virginia, this will likley melt it!

 

Where?

Most areas will see a quick shot of some sleet and snow quickly changing to rain and freezing rain. Freezing rain will persist in the mountainous areas especially the valleys, of Virginia and Maryland. Some higher elevation of far western areas will see snow (VA and MD) and then some Ice. Snow in central and Western Pennsylvania, though Far SW PA will see a mix and even rain for a while. This storm will not be a big icing event east of the mountains.

Some thoughts on amounts:

Western Maryland (Hagerstown) could see 2-4”.. then sleet and freezing rain.. west of and including this region could see a significant Ice Storm

 

Far Western Loudoun: 1-2” Snow then Sleet and Freezing rain and rain ..

Shenandoah valley, North of Hot Springs: 1-2” snow.. then ice and sleet.. to rain.. back to snow briefly

Coastal plains east of I-95 will see little mix to quick rain.

 

I-95 cities and west to immediate Piedmont, north of Fredericksburg could see a light coating

 

Cites west of a Fredericksburg to Lynchburg line could see some coating of ice early, then a mix over to rain.

 

 

When? Starting Thursday Early Morning South overspreading northern areas by Late Morning

 

Comments: This system has taken on much more of a warm look. The issue will be that a little precip will cause huge problems tomorrow as it is these minor events that can snarl traffic for hours!  The Ground, especially in Northern Virginia, is frozen and many stations are reporting road temps below freezing. Long and short.. not a big event, but a big headache is possible tomorrow morning depending on when the storm starts

 

As noted, I do not have time to update the mp, but it looks wrong now!

 

Of Note: Large potential Snow Storm early next week! Details are still being worked out!

Great School in Northern Virginia. http://www.ambleside.org

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12/13 DC/MD/VA Winter Weather Alert

What?

Significant Icing event. Moderate Icing event and Light Icing event

Some Accumulating Snows

 

Where?

Significant Icing: Immediate Piedmont: Maryland, Virginia, North Carolina

Major Icing: Immediate Piedmont to 35 miles west of I-95; Maryland, Virginia

North  Carolina : West Central NC

Light Icing: I-95 to about 35 miles west of  I-95: West Central NC

Snows: Higher elevations of Northern Virginia and Western Maryland. A large Part of Pennsylvania, West 40 miles west of I-95

 

When? Starting Thursday Early Morning South overspreading northern areas by Late Morning

 

Comments: Tough call in many ways. A lot of precip will fall over very shallow cold air. The Warm air appears to truly Surge over the area and warm areas close to or above freezing. There is a chance for significant rains as well. If things stay frozen, ice storm conditions could be reached by a lot more areas than what I am indicating on my first guess map. May issue a follow up call tomorrow night.. but my guess may be all the time I have to do.

 

http://mawinterweather.blogspot.com

 

Of Note: Large potential Snow Storm early next week!

Great School in Northern Virginia. http://www.ambleside.org

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12/8 Late in the game: Last Call

My final thoughts on this one!

 

Charlottesville: 3-5" - Sleet a real possibility. Starting 8-10pm
Roanoke: 1-3" Icing concerns. May reach Ice Storm criteria 
Lynchburg 1"  Icing concerns. May reach Ice Storm criteria 
Richmond: Rain

Fredericksburg: 2-4" Snow.. then Sleet and Freezing Rain Starting 8-11pm
DC National: 2-4" Snow.. then Sleet and Freezing Rain Starting 8-11pm
Baltimore: 3-5" Snow.. then Sleet and Freezing Rain Starting 9-Midnight

Dulles: 3-5" - Sleet a real possibility. 8-11pm

Hagerstown: 4-8" (maybe 10") Starting 8-11pm
Purcellville: 4-8" Starting 8-11pm

 

Please note.. this is a dynamic system.. it could compensate for some warmth that it is en-training off the ocean and cause places to shift between snow and sleet and freezing rain. If we get Thunderstorms( a possibility) we will see higher totals of precip in whatever type is falling on you! That could be interesting!

 

Visuals at http://mawinterweather.blogspot.com

 

 

 

Great School in Northern Virginia. http://www.ambleside.org

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12/8 Winter Weather Alert

Winter Weather Alert!

 

 

What? Winter Storm with mix and potential Ice Storm scenarios for regions.

 

When? Tonight into Friday

 

Where? Northern 1/3^rd of the area, specifically Northern Virginia and Maryland , North of Fredericksburg and 25 mile either side of I-95 to see a mix of Freezing rain, sleet, and snow. More Snow Possible Far Northwestern Virginia and West of central Frederick County Maryland.  Central regions, just east of the Mountains and south of  a Fredericksburg to a Charlottesville line down to Roanoke area may meet ice storm criteria due to cold air damming.

 

How Much?

Mixed areas: 1-2 inches of snow and then a slop eastern side (I-95 and east), 2-4” western side, were more sleet will be involved verses Freezing rain.  

Areas staying all snow should see a healthy 4-8” with potential 10”+ amounts in spots.

There are signs of potential thunderstorms which will enhance precip types in all areas, and may add to totals of snow as dynamics could offset warmer air aloft.

 

Comments: This storm is still a quick mover and will give areas a quick change from no precipitation to serious amounts very quickly. Some early runs this morning indicate the possibility of less mixing. This leads me to think we could see more snow just west of I-95.. still the same regions.. north of Fredericksburg, west of  I-95.

 

More to come:

 

 

 

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