12/5 Final Call Maps on 12/5 -12/6 system

This really Bucks the Models! Serious bust potential here!

This still looks pretty good, but start times!

Charlottesville: 5-10" Starting 7-10am

Roanoke: 5-10"+ (Some spots 12") Starting 4-9am

Lynchburg 4-8" Starting 4-9am

Richmond: 3-6" (Lots of Mixing with rain)  Starting 9am - noon

Fredericksburg: 5-10" Starting 10am to 1pm

DC National: 5-10" Starting 11am - 1pm

Baltimore: 5-10" Startng 11am - 2pm

IAD: 5-10" Starting 11am-1pm

Hagerstown: 4-8" Starting 11am-1pm

Purcellville: 4-8" Starting 11-1pm

Few things on this:

1. Think Storm will be further west than models 

2. See good Wrap around/deformation zone possible

3. Expecting a closer to the coast pull ultimately

 

http://mawinterweather.blogspot.com

Great School in Northern Virginia. http://www.ambleside.org

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12/4 First Call Maps.. First call amounts

Ok. This is my first call, likely final call after next Model runs.Giving some Locations and amounts!
Charlottesville: 5-10" Starting Early Afternoon
Roanoke: 5-10"+ (Some spots 12") Starting 7-9am
Lynchburg 4-8" Starting 7-9am
Richmond: 3-6" Starting 9am - noon
Fredericksburg: 5-10" Starting noon to 3pm
DC National: 5-10" Starting 3-6pm
Baltimore: 5-10" Startng 5-8pm
IAD: 5-10" Starting 3-6pm
Hagerstown: 4-8" Starting 3-6pm
Purcellville: 4-8" Starting 3-6pm

Few things on this:
1. Think Storm will be further west
2. See good Wrap around/deformation zone possible
3. Expecting a closer to the coast pull ultimately

 

http://mawinterweather.blogspot.com

Great School in Northern Virginia. http://www.ambleside.org

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2nd Guess! Posted!

http://mawinterweather.blogspot.com

 

 

Great School in Northern Virginia. http://www.ambleside.org

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12/3 Winter Weather Alert! For TONIGHT's storm

Final Call map out at http://mawinterweather.blogspot.com

 

Second storm looking like a classic I-95 Storm now!

 

 

Great School in Northern Virginia. http://www.ambleside.org

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12/3 DC/MD/VA Snow Alert UPDATED!! Shift SOUTH possible!

Snow Alert UPDATED!! Shift SOUTH possible!

 

The trends of the models has been to shift heavier snow southward! Based on this, lighter Snows would be expected north of Fredericksburg to Charlottesville areas. South of this down to Richmond and southwestward to Lynchburg could really be under the gun for a significant snow.  This is based on the models at this time. A new map will be issued later today or this evening. My thinking is that a pull to the north may occur.. but realistically, it could even shift further south!

 

Please Stay Tuned!

Great School in Northern Virginia. http://www.ambleside.org

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First Guess for Monday'S Event

First Guess.. Latest Models have shifed South!

 

http://mawinterweather.blogspot.com/

Great School in Northern Virginia. http://www.ambleside.org

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12/2 DC/MD/VA Winter Weather Alert

First Real Snow Chances for the Region Monday. Appetizer tomorrow Night.

 

** Sorry to those that receive this twice. Alerts will just go to the alert email address after this one.

 

What?

2 Systems will affect the region between Today and Tuesday with Winter weather

 

System 1: No big deal, but a burst of snow and sleet should occur tomorrow evening that should last until Midnight.

 

System 2: Significant chance of a real snowstorm.

 

Where?

System 1: Northern 2/3rds of Virginia and Western Maryland. The Snow should change to rain for most regions, but North Central Maryland and the Northwestern part of Virginia.

 

System 2: All regions could see some snow, but again, best chances appear to be northern 2/3rds of Virginia, and western 2/3rds of Maryland. Snow should overtake the region and then a mix to rain, very quickly southern regions, and slowly a creep northward and westward. Right now would call for I-95 areas north of Frederickburg to see a moderate event, while areas west of this by 15 to 20 miles will see a potentially major storm.

 

How Much?

System 1: Dusting most areas at best, but 1 to as much as 3 inches in the areas staying snow or a mix. Grassy and elevated surfaces only.

 

System 2: (First Guess here) Potential exists for the Moderate areas to see 3 to 5 inches and the Major areas (mainly snow) to see 5 to 10 inches with some 12 inch readings in the higher elevations and immediate piedmont areas of Northern Virginia (North of Charlottesville and  western Maryland).

 

When?

System 1: Saturday late day through Midnight for most regions, but the areas mentioned where accumulations could occur will be through Sunday Morning.

 

System 2: Sunday Night through Monday.. possibly stretching to early Tuesday morning.

 

Comments: System 1 will not be a big deal. System 2 seriously could be, but we are early in the game on this! Shifts in the track obviously mean chances for more or less snow. As models converge on the system, updates will come. Also of note, roads are warm so salt will do a good job on helping melt the snow.

 

Expect snow impact Maps possibly tonight or tomorrow morning.. First Guess on Accumulations afternoon or evening tomorrow.

 

All for Now!

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11/29 DC/MD/VA Severe Weather Alert

Severe Storms Possible Today:

 

There is a possibility of some thunderstorms today, some of which could produce severe winds. Overall, the day will be very windy and very rainy, especially later this morning into the mid evening.

 

OF NOTE: Our weather could get interesting Sunday into Monday... Maybe more likely next Tuesday into Wednesday. A lot of model discrepancies, but there appears to be the first real shot of a winter storm in the region during that time period! Of course, I will keep all posted.

 

 

Great School in Northern Virginia. http://www.ambleside.org

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11/23 DC/MD/VA Snow Showers!

I understand there were snow showers around yesterday evening for people east of the mountains, well it appears this possibility is becoming more likely overnight tonight. It appears that a clipper system (quick moving storms from Canada) will quickly overtake the area this evening and areas west of 95, especially the northern Half of Virginia and all of western MD, will see some brief, wind whipped, snow showers tonight. There may be enough now to whiten the ground in spots, but, typically these storms do not drop much snow for the region. The result tomorrow, will be very cold and windy conditions tomorrow!

 

Of note, the Great Lakes will be providing serious amounts of Lake Effect Snow the next few days! Also, northern New England  will also see some good snows.

 

This is just a Holiday sampler!

 

There were signs that a true snowstorm may take shape next week. The last several model runs have started to change the direction and may actually bring in warmer temperatures. I will keep you posted if things change!

 

Happy Thanksgiving!

 

Great School in Northern Virginia. http://www.ambleside.org

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11/19 DC/MD/VA Weather Outlook with Potential Snow in the forecast!

---

Well, a little earlier than I expected, but not without excited hopes, winter appears to have arrived and is already giving us excitement and near misses! A very windy wet (and mountain snowy) system looks ready to give us a close call Monday into Tuesday! Winds and rain could change to snow briefly at the end as very cold air gets wrapped in. This system appears to push the North Atlantic Oscillation NEGATIVE, which means COLDER conditions to follow and stay for a bit. It also means, storms COULD have potential to cause snow and as soon as Thanksgiving! Also another large low may visit next weekend or early the following week. Gamma formed!

---

Apologies to those who receive this twice! With the upupcomingravel holiday and the first chances of wintry weather, I felt it was good to let alallnow of the potential for inclement weather!

 

Summary:  Well, without real foreknowledge, the pattern WILL switch to a winter one and stay that way for a bit! It looks like the very powerful storm Monday into Tuesday will ultimately assist in bring very cold temperatures to the region and know the North Atlantic Oscillation Negative. (get ready for many travel issues for those headed out of town) The pattern will also have a good Pacific North American Pattern and if you are wondering what all this means.. it gives us a good chance to get winter weather! Do not write off Monday and Tuesday's storm as an all rain event, especially higher elevations which could see a significant snowfall, and other areas could see a turnover before the end of the storm! Thursday, yet another system approaches and I-95 cities and west could see some snow! Then the pattern is ready with another potential larger storm sometime between Next Friday and next Tuesday, and I do believe many may see their first REAL significant snow! Crazy summer of Tropical systems is turning into a crazy early winter.. even with the warm fall!

 

Tropics: Tropicl Storm Gamma is packing 45mph winds! Amazing historic tropical season lives on!

 

The look out for Winter: The Lookout is about to end in reality! The pattern of a Negative NAO and Positive PNA could not be better for a wintry east coast!  This should be a busy week!

 

Thanks to all who continue to post to the Forum. The community posts should SKYROCKET as we head towards our first winter systems! Our community has grown to 27 members. http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3/

 

Did you know? I send this update out semi regularly via email! To get it send and email to midatlanticweather-subscribe@yahoogroups.com I also send a Severe Weather Alert when we need it. To get it mid-atlanticweather-subscribe@yahoogroups.com I am considering a tropical only list as well.

 

 

Forecast text and graphics from National Weather Service. Mid Atlantic Weather com is not responsible for accuracy of these forecasts and may not be
held liable for any damages caused by using this web site. Data may not be current therefore the user agrees to always rely upon official forecast products
for their area provided by the National Weather Service.

Great School in Northern Virginia. http://www.ambleside.org

---

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11/19 DC/MD/VA Weather Outlook with Potential Snow in the forecast!

---

Well, a little earlier than I expected, but not without excited hopes, winter appears to have arrived and is already giving us excitement and near misses! A very windy wet (and mountain snowy) system looks ready to give us a close call Monday into Tuesday! Winds and rain could change to snow briefly at the end as very cold air gets wrapped in. This system appears to push the North Atlantic Oscillation NEGATIVE, which means COLDER conditions to follow and stay for a bit. It also means, storms COULD have potential to cause snow and as soon as Thanksgiving! Also another large low may visit next weekend or early the following week. Gamma formed!

---

Apologies to those who receive this twice! With the upupcomingravel holiday and the first chances of wintry weather, I felt it was good to let alallnow of the potential for inclement weather!

 

Summary:  Well, without real foreknowledge, the pattern WILL switch to a winter one and stay that way for a bit! It looks like the very powerful storm Monday into Tuesday will ultimately assist in bring very cold temperatures to the region and know the North Atlantic Oscillation Negative. (get ready for many travel issues for those headed out of town) The pattern will also have a good Pacific North American Pattern and if you are wondering what all this means.. it gives us a good chance to get winter weather! Do not write off Monday and Tuesday's storm as an all rain event, especially higher elevations which could see a significant snowfall, and other areas could see a turnover before the end of the storm! Thursday, yet another system approaches and I-95 cities and west could see some snow! Then the pattern is ready with another potential larger storm sometime between Next Friday and next Tuesday, and I do believe many may see their first REAL significant snow! Crazy summer of Tropical systems is turning into a crazy early winter.. even with the warm fall!

 

Tropics: Tropicl Storm Gamma is packing 45mph winds! Amazing historic tropical season lives on!

 

The look out for Winter: The Lookout is about to end in reality! The pattern of a Negative NAO and Positive PNA could not be better for a wintry east coast!  This should be a busy week!

 

Thanks to all who continue to post to the Forum. The community posts should SKYROCKET as we head towards our first winter systems! Our community has grown to 27 members. http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3/

 

Did you know? I send this update out semi regularly via email! To get it send and email to midatlanticweather-subscribe@yahoogroups.com I also send a Severe Weather Alert when we need it. To get it mid-atlanticweather-subscribe@yahoogroups.com I am considering a tropical only list as well.

 

 

Forecast text and graphics from National Weather Service. Mid Atlantic Weather com is not responsible for accuracy of these forecasts and may not be
held liable for any damages caused by using this web site. Data may not be current therefore the user agrees to always rely upon official forecast products
for their area provided by the National Weather Service.

Great School in Northern Virginia. http://www.ambleside.org

---

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11/16 Severe Weather Possible.. Winds most likely

Severe Weather Alert

 

Fortunately the passing of the front today will not be after maximum heating or the chances of severe storms would be higher. Despite this, even a heavy shower could mix Down very strong winds and that alone could cause severe wind gusts up to 60 mph. The NWS did issue a Wind Advisory as we will see a big change in the weather.

 

Please stay tuned... Despite the threat not being as strong. There is the possibility of some severe storms and isolated tornadoes.

 

This will be the start of what could be a very cold period. We may see winter weather the week after Thanksgiving. More to come!

 

 

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11/6 DC/MD/VA Severe Weather Alert

Severe Storms possible with strong winds and isolated Tornadoes

 

Dynamics in the atmosphere will be conducive for Severe storms as a strong cold front moves through the area. The Strong front could produce severe storms with the risk of high winds and even tornadoes.

 

Please stay tuned to media and weather outlets for watches and/or warnings.

 

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Could it snow? Yes! N. VA and MD

There is a chance that snow could mix in with the rain west of a Charlottesville to Dulles to Ferederick County line. Higher the elevation, the better the chance!

 

the Mixing would be earl in teh Morning Tuesday. Higher elevations of Western Virginia may see a period of all snow overnight into tomorrow morning!

 

Wild weather!

 

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9/29 DC/MD/VA Severe Weather Alert

Severe Weather Possible Today

As a strong cold front crosses the area a line of showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front. Due to strong winds aloft there is the possibility that severe winds could mix down to the surface. Once the front has passed the afternoon will continue breezy and much cooler air will be filtering into the area. This cold "snap" should only last about a day as we will then climb to normal and then above normal temperature, but get ready for a cool Friday Morning and cooler than normal Friday.

 

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9/26 DC/MD/VA Severe Weather Alert

Severe Weather possible today!

The combination of a strong cold front combined with the remnants of Rita will cross the area today. This front could trigger some strong to severe storms which could mix some high winds to the surface. There is the chance that isolated cells could spawn a tornado so please stay alert to media and weather outlets today for watches and or warnings.

 

All for now.

 

 

  

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8/31 DC/MD/VA Severe Weather Possible

8/31 DC/MD/VA Severe Weather Possible

 

Severe weather is possible today as the atmosphere is very unstable. There are some opposing factors to thunderstorm development today which should limit storms and so the threat is for isolated storms which could be severe.

 

Stay tuned to local news and weather outlets for watches and or warnings.

 

All for now!

 

Relief Agencies:

American Red Cross, http://www.redcross.org 800-HELP NOW (435-7669) English, 800-257-7575 Spanish.

Operation Blessing, http://www.ob.org 800-436-6348.

Salvation Army, http://www.salvationarmyusa.org 800-SAL-ARMY (725-2769).

America's Second Harvest, http://www.secondblessing.org 800-344-8070.

Adventist Community Services, http://www.adventist.communityservices.org 800-381-7171.

Christian Disaster Response, http://www.cdresponse.org 941-956-5183 or 941-551-9554.

Christian Reformed World Relief Committee, http://www.crwrc.org 800-848-5818.

Church World Service, http://www.churchworldservice.org 800-297-1516.

Convoy of Hope, http://www.convoyofhope.org 417-823-8998.

Lutheran Disaster Response, http://www.elca.org/disaster 800-638-3522.

Presbyterian Disaster Assistance, http://www.pcusa.org/pda/ 800-872-3283.

Southern Baptist Convention Disaster Relief, http://www.namb.net/site/c.9qKILUOzEpH/b.224451/k.7BDB/Disaster_Relief_Homepage.htm 800-462-8657, ext. 6440.

United Methodist Committee on Relief. http://gbgm-umc.org/umcor/ 800-554-8583

 

 

Forecast text and graphics from National Weather Service. Mid Atlantic Weather com is not responsible for accuracy of these forecasts and may not be held liable for any damages caused by using this web site. Data may not be current therefore the user agrees to always rely upon official forecast products for their area provided by the National Weather Service.

 

This outlook was brought to you by A Cleaner Carpet Co! Water Damage? Entertaining? Pet issues? Allergy problems? Check out what makes their carpet cleaning, cleaner than others!
http://www.acleanercarpetco.com Residential and Commercial! (Oriental Rug Cleaning also available) (703) 772 - 5157

 

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8/30 DC/MD/VA Severe Weather Alert!

Severe Threat today from Katrina Remnants

 

Though our severe weather today may bring isolated tornadoes which can devastate smaller scale areas, yesterday’s destruction is only beginning to be realized. This storm will go down in the record books and has the potential to top Andrew in her final damage assessments. Prayers and thoughts go out to the families that have lost loved ones and property as well as memories that were washed away or destroyed. I find weather fascinating but I know it can devastate a family and community. Please consider volunteering at local Red Cross or other agencies helping take in donations.

 

For us, we are under the threat for severe storms today. It is very likely that thunderstorms will bring down some rotation from the upper levels and cause tornadoes. Also, winds aloft are moving very fast and high winds in storms are a good bet. The Storm Prediction Center has wisely put us under a Moderate Risk for Severe weather later today as the remnants of the storm moves to our west. I have been hinting of this for days so hopefully people are aware of the threat. Another threat, with such abundant moisture, will be localized flash flooding. Storms will likely be moving fast enough to prevent a widespread outbreak of flash floods, but tropical systems seem to be able to drop 2 to 3 times the amount of rain in a short period of time than most storms.

 

PLEASE stay tuned to local weather and media outlets for watches and warnings that will be posted later today.

 

Relief Agencies:

American Red Cross, 800-HELP NOW (435-7669) English, 800-257-7575 Spanish.

Operation Blessing, 800-436-6348.

Salvation Army, 800-SAL-ARMY (725-2769).

America's Second Harvest, 800-344-8070.

Adventist Community Services, 800-381-7171.

Christian Disaster Response, 941-956-5183 or 941-551-9554.

Christian Reformed World Relief Committee, 800-848-5818.

Church World Service, 800-297-1516.

Convoy of Hope, 417-823-8998.

Lutheran Disaster Response, 800-638-3522.

Presbyterian Disaster Assistance, 800-872-3283.

Southern Baptist Convention Disaster Relief, 800-462-8657, ext. 6440.

United Methodist Committee on Relief. 800-554-8583.

This outlook was brought to you by A Cleaner Carpet Co! Water Damage? Entertaining? Pet issues? Allergy problems? Check out what makes their carpet cleaning, cleaner than others!
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8/16 DC/MD/VA Severe Weather Alert

8/16 DC/MD/VA Severe Weather Alert

 

Conditions have become unstable enough to cause isolated severe storms this afternoon. The best chances will be the southern 2/3rds of the region. The Biggest threat will be high winds and heavy rains.

 

Stay tuned to radio and news outlets for watches and/or warnings.

 

All for Now

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8/14 DC/MD/VA Severe Weather Alert

It is possible that a few storms will fire today and some could be severe. Please stay tuned to news and weather outlets for watches and or warnings.

 

The biggest threat today will be winds and heavy rain.

 

All for now!

 

This outlook was brought to you by A Cleaner Carpet Co! Water Damage? Entertaining? Pet issues? Allergy problems? Check out what makes their carpet cleaning, cleaner than others!
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