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Thursday, June 22, 2006

6/22 Severe Weather Alert

SEVERE WEATHER ALERT!
A frontal boundary will become stationary over the area for the next several days. At first the contrasts between the warm and cooler air over the front will be come a focus mechanism for Strong and Severe storms today and especially tomorrow.
 
FLOODING RAINS POSSBLE
The stalled front responsible for strong to severe storms will also help squeeze out abundant moisture. Flooding seems very probable for parts of the region where areas could top 6 inches of rain between now and early next week!
 
VERY HOT TODAY
The rain in the north today MAY assist in holding temperatures from reaching the maxes once forecast, but I do believe many areas will see temperatures in the mid 90s today and could see heat indexes at 100 degrees or more! Be careful!
 
 

Monday, June 19, 2006

6/19 DC/MD/VA Severe Weather Alert

6/19 DC/MD/VA Severe Weather Alert
 With the approach of a weak frontal boundary and a very warm atmosphere, conditions should become favorable for some thunderstorms. It is possible that these storms could become severe capable of high winds and hail. There is even the possibility of some storms producing isolated tornadoes. Please stay tuned to weather and news outlets for watches and or warnings!

All for now!



Friday, June 09, 2006

6/9 Severe Weather

Severe Weather Alert!

Isolated Severe storms have been popping up in northern reagions. Please be alert for possible strong winds and hail from these isolated thunderstorms.

 

Thursday, June 08, 2006

6/8 Alert: Severe Weather Possible today

Severe Weather Possible Today

There is a possibility of scattered Severe Storms today. The main threat will be high winds and some hail. Please stay tuned to weather and news outlets for possible watches and/or warnings.

 

 

Friday, May 26, 2006

5/26 Severe Weather Possible today

Severe Weather Possible today
 
A warm moist air mass and an approaching cold front will combine to produce showers and thunderstorms today. As the storms form (mainly east of the mountains) some may become severe. The biggest threat will be high winds, but there are some indications that conditions could produce some isolated tornadoes especially east of I-95. Stay tuned to news and weather outlets for watches and/or warnings.
 
All for now!
 
Jimmy

Sunday, May 14, 2006

5/14 Severe Weather Alert

Severe Storm Alert
 
With a strong Low in Michigan and a spoke of energy coming through today a chance of severe storms exists today. Some storms may become tornadic as the situation becomes more volatile. Please stay tuned to radio and news outlets for watches and/or warnings.
 

 
Great School in Northern Virginia. http://www.ambleside.org

Saturday, April 15, 2006

4/15 DC/MD/VA Severe Weather Alert

Severe Weather Alert:

 

There is a risk of Severe Storms today. Biggest threat will be winds and hail but there is a risk of some isolated tornadoes.

 

The Risk will also exist tomorrow.

 

Stay tuned to radio and news outlets

Monday, April 03, 2006

4/3 Alert: Severe threat will increase

As the day wears on there will be some breaks in the clouds. A very dynamic atmosphere is set up ac cross the region and Super Cell thunderstorms (rotating) will likely form in some areas.  This should increase the chance for damaging winds, hail and even tornadoes. Please stay alert to news and radio as watches and warnings are likely to be posted in the later afternoon.
 
All for now.
 
Jimmy

Monday, March 20, 2006

A little snow. Not much!

Many north of a Fredericksburg to Charlottesville line up to Baltimore will see a little snow tomorrow. Ground temps will be warm. Expecting nothing more than a dusting to an inch or so.
 
There could be slightly more near Charlottesville and in the higher elevations.
 
2" would be the max for low elevations and not much will fall in Northern Maryland.
 
Hey.. it is Late March!
 
There is a slight possibility of another storm this weekend that could cause snow.. but I am not very confident in the idea and again higher elevations would see the real threat.
 
We need rain in the region as we are very, very dry!
 
 
Great School in Northern Virginia. http://www.ambleside.org

Sunday, March 19, 2006

Colder than normal temps + a southern storm= SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE!


Colder than normal temps + a southern storm= SNOWSTORM POSSIBLE!


Summary:  Wow! Here we go with another chance of snow! Anyone remember temps last weekend?  That is right! Give the weather a week and things can chage. The Combining features. A strong 1040MB High (Impressive this time of year) in Canada and a southern storm. So many things work against accumulating snow in areas east of the mountains this time of year!

  1. Warm ground
  2. Warm sun
  3. Long daylight hours
  4. Climatology

 

BUT.. there are exceptions to every situation! And this may be the exception! Right now, the most favored areas are higher elevations, especially north of Charlottesville. Higher elevations could see 3-6” and lower elevations 1-3”. Areas west of I-95 north of Fredericksburg to Charlottesville seem more likely to me than anywhere else to see snow (other than the mountains of course)

 

Longer term appears to remain below normal to near normal temps and continued dry.

 

   

Thanks to all who continue to post to the Forum. The community has grown to 44 members. http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3/

 

Did you know? I send this update out semi regularly via email! To get it send and email to midatlanticweather-subscribe@yahoogroups.com I also send a Severe Weather Alert when we need it. To get it mid-atlanticweather-subscribe@yahoogroups.com I am considering a tropical only list as well.

 

Great Host! Vodahost.. 12000 MB of space,  unlimited domains, unlimited email accounts! http://www.vodahost.com?a_aid=0048a41a

 

 

 

Forecast text and graphics from National Weather Service. Mid Atlantic Weather com is not responsible for accuracy of these forecasts and may not be held liable for any damages caused by using this web site. Data may not be current therefore the user agrees to always rely upon official forecast products for their area provided by the National Weather Service.


 
Great School in Northern Virginia. http://www.ambleside.org

Thursday, March 16, 2006

A little snow after 85 degree weather! Wow!

Later tonight in areas mainly North of Fredericksburg to Charlottesville and west of I-95 may see a bit of snow! Snow could set up in a narrow band and cause heavier accumulations (up to 3" on grassy areas in higher elevations), but mainly a dusting for most who see it.. Road and ground temperatures are pretty warm so this will not cause major issues except maybe some of the higher elevations.
 
Temperatures will remain cool through the weekend and another rain/snow mixing type scenario may unfold next week. That is iffy as of now.
 
85 degree temps to snow in 4 days! Wow!
 
All for now!
 
 
Great School in Northern Virginia. http://www.ambleside.org

Monday, March 13, 2006

Severe Storms Possible and a Switch Back to colder weather =(

Severe Storms Possible Today

 

After a beautiful weekend we will have a strong front coming through the area this evening and overnight. Preceding this front will be record or near record warmth in the mid and upper 80s. The sharp contrast in temperatures is a focus line for strong to severe storms. The biggest threat will be high winds and hail, but isolated tornadoes are not out of the question. The biggest threat time will be between 5pm tonight and 1am tomorrow morning.

 

Unfortunately this is a signal to colder temps for the rest of the week. There is even a chance of some snow Thursday night in parts of the region!

 

All for now.

 

 

Wednesday, February 22, 2006

2/22 Some Areas of heavy/moderate snow and accumlations

Snow is falling rather moderately to sometimes heavy north and western regions! Reports in the far west and slightly elevated areas have 3-5". There appears to be a chance that grassy areas could have 1-2" where it is snowing moderately now!
 
When snow is moderate and heavy, slushy to snow covered roads have been reported! Stay safe. I can see the western edge of the precipitation on radar advancing eastward so things will likely end between 10 and 11 am.

 
Great School in Northern Virginia. http://www.ambleside.org

Tuesday, February 21, 2006

2/21 Increased Risk for Light Snow Tomorrow

There is an increased risk of light snow in the morning tomorrow as a southern weather disturbance passes through the area. The increased risk will be for areas where precip begins before sunrise. The reason for increasing the risk is the colder temperatures that are already in place as the area is under ideal radiational cooling. Best risk of light accumulations would be Virginia west of a Charlottesville to Roanoke line. I am not expecting more that a dusting to an inch in these areas, but roads could be cold making commutes rough. For the rest of the area, the risk is there that precip could start before dawn. If it does, allow extra time as small events like these are usually the roughest commutes! Once the sun is up, temps appear to rise to start melting and even could transition precip to rain in areas. IF precip begins before sunrise, the rise in temps could be slower.
 
Be careful!
 
Of note, we will have the coldest air of the season Sunday and Monday followed by a continues cooler than normal period. In the 7-10 day period there are signals of a potential significant winter storm!
 
All for now!
 
Great School in Northern Virginia. http://www.ambleside.org

Saturday, February 18, 2006

2/18 Light Snow possible today

Already snowing in Southwestern VA and western NC. Expect up to an inch in most spots. In Southwestern 1-3" with isolated 4" amounts higher elevations seems possible. Best accumulations will be on car tops and grassy areas!
 
Snow chances best from Charlottesville to Fredericksburg to Salisbury and south. Best chance of Accumlations, 30 miles either side of a Dublin to Roanoke to Richmond line.
 
up to an inch possible.
 
1-3" Southwestern VA where snow started around sunrise!
 
All for now!
 
Great School in Northern Virginia. http://www.ambleside.org

Friday, February 10, 2006

2/11 2/12 Final Call

2/11 2/12 Final Call
 
Hagerstown: 4-8”
Frederick, MD: 4-8”
Montgomery, MD: 5-9”
Baltimore: 6-10”
D.C: 6-10” (Maybe some sleet/rain at start)
Dulles: 4-8” (Maybe some sleet)
Fredericksburg: 6-10” (Maybe some sleet)
Salisbury: 1-3” then Rain
Richmond: 3-6” (Mixing with rain and sleet)
Williamsburg 1-3” (Mixing with sleet and rain)
Emporia: Mix then rain
VA Beach: Rain (Sorry stormy!  sad )
Martinsburg: 3-6” (Some Sleet)
Roanoke: 3-6”
Charlottesville: 4-8”
Leesburg: 4-8”
 
Heaviest snow arrives morning far SW
Late Morning Southwest
1-4 PM Richmod and Fredericksburg
5-8 PM DC and Baltmore
 
 
 
or
 
 
 
Great School in Northern Virginia. http://www.ambleside.org

2/10 SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM CONTINUES ON TRACK FOR THIS WEEKEND

SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM CONTINUES ON TRACK FOR THIS WEEKEND

 

What: All models are showing what should become a significant snow storm for the mid Atlantic Region this weekend.

 

When: Starting overnight Friday in the southwestern regions and spreading over the northern areas by late afternoon Saturday

 

How Much: Well, ranges in precip come in between 3-6” (Further South and west) and  4-8” (Further North and even east).. Some areas **COULD** see amounts in the 10” range.

Where:

I-95 areas and about 40 miles either side of it may be the jackpot areas until you get midway between Richmond and Fredericksburg, where you should pull the rain/snow line back west to western North Carolina.

Southeastern Virginia, from Just west of Richmond to Danville and the areas east should see a mix and the closer to the coast a changeover to rain. (Like Williamsburg to the Eastern Shore and Lower Southern Maryland)

 

This will be fine tuned… and I hope a map later tonight.

 

Amount Highlights:

Hagerstown: 3-6”

Frederick, MD: 3-6”

Montgomery, MD: 3-6”

Baltimore: 4-8”

D.C: 3-6” (Maybe some sleet/rain at start)

Dulles: 3-6” (Maybe some sleet)

Fredericksburg: 3-6” (Maybe some sleet)

Salisbury: 1-2” then Rain

Richmond: 1-2” (Mixing with rain and sleet)

Williamsburg 1-2” (Mixing with sleet and rain)

Emporia: Trace then rain

VA Beach: Few flakes then rain

Martinsburg: 3-6” (Some Sleet)

Roanoke: 3-6”

Charlottesville: 3-6”

Leesburg: 3-6”

 

Hopefully this gives you some idea of my thoughts!

 

 

Concerns:

  1. System bombing out and timing will make all the difference! I am thinking Maryland near Baltimore could be closer to 10”+ amounts
  2. The speed of movement is in question to an extent. Speed will make all the difference as well.
  3. A dry slot could develop in areas which will drop amounts
  4. time of day is not favorable for best accumulations.
  5. Any convective activity will up amounts in some regions… yes… Thundersnow!
  6. Still worried about a Southeastward shift in storm track. One of the latest models confirmed this concern.

 

All for now!

 www.midatlanticweather.com


 

Great School in Northern Virginia. http://www.ambleside.org

Thursday, February 09, 2006

SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM ON TRACK FOR THIS WEEKEND

SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM ON TRACK FOR THIS WEEKEND

 

What: All models are showing what should become a significant snow storm for the Mid Atlantic Region this weekend.

 

When: Starting overnight Friday in the southwestern regions and spreading over the northern areas by late afternoon Saturday

 

How Much: Well, ranges in precip come in between 3-5” for a large area with some higher spots likely seeing 4-8”. It does appear that there will be a sharp cut off on the western edge so the mountains and westward may really miss the heavier snows as well as the immediate piedmont areas of Western Maryland and Northern Virginia. Please note there could be some higher amounts within the jack pot areas as well. A lot to watch!

 

Where:

I-95 areas and about 30 miles either side of it may be the jackpot areas until you get just south of Richmond where you should pull the rain/snow line back west to western North Carolina.

Southeastern Virginia and the areas east of 30 miles or so east of I-95 should see a mix and the closer to the coast a changeover to rain.

Western and north of areas from Leesburg down to Charlottesville and then Southwestward towards Bristol could see a rapid drop off in snow amounts, but this is too detailed and could change

 

This will be fine tuned.

 

Concerns:

  1. True model Consensus is not there yet.
  2. Amounts will be hard to determine until the models handle some of the phasing of the systems better
  3. Could see a further north and west pull of warm air if the system gets stronger, thus putting I-95 corridor in jeopardy of a changeover
  4. There is also the possibility the storm stays further South and East which would limit Northern and Western area snows.. As noted, there could be a sharp cut off in snow to the west.

 

All for now!

 

Jimmy

http://www.midatlanticweather.com

 

Great School in Northern Virginia. http://www.ambleside.org

Wednesday, February 08, 2006

2/8 Winter Storm Is Possible This Weekend!

Latest Models and trends show a moderate risk for a significant snow storm this weekend. This is the first model run to have consensus on the system, and there are many questions concerning the storm! I will do an official alert later tonight or early tomorrow morning. For now you can read the eveolution of this system at http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3/index.php?topic=1008.0
 
All for Now
 
Great School in Northern Virginia. http://www.ambleside.org

Friday, January 13, 2006

1/13 DC/MD/VA Severe and winter weather alert

The first things first: Severe weather possible overnight. Very strong winds tomorrow. Possible period of snow tomorrow night (Northern areas and Appalachians, mainly west of I-p5 and north of Fredericksburg.
 
Biggest threat tonight is high winds but isolated tornadoes are possible.
 
All I have time for now!

 
Great School in Northern Virginia. http://www.ambleside.org

Monday, January 02, 2006

1/2 DC/MD/VA Severe Weather Alert

Severe weather possible today.

A strong cold front will combine with a developing low pressure to cause widespread heavy rains and some strong to severe thunderstorms today. The best chances for severe weather will be the Southern areas of Virginia and especially North Carolina. Areas just east of the mountains may be stable enough to prevent the severe weather. The biggest threat would be strong winds and hail, but conditions in North Carolina (and limited elsewhere) does appear to be able to support tornadoes!

Please stay alert to weather and media outlets for watches or warnings.

Of note, this morning temperatures in the northern parts of the mountain valleys has been cold enough fro some freezing rain.

All for now!
 


Great School in Northern Virginia. http://www.ambleside.org


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Thursday, December 15, 2005

12/15 Winter Weather Alert

Significant Icing likely for some. I-95 areas should be spared the worst

 
Cold air has really stuck well in many areas. Anyone east of the Mountains and in the Mountain valleys up to about 25 miles west of  I-95 from Baltimore to Fredericksburg and then 25 miles west of a line from Fredericksburg to Danville should see a significant Ice storm! Ice accrual will be .25 to .5”, which will be substantial enough for power outages and definitely driving problems. About 25 miles either side of that same line could see .15 to .20” of accrual. This will be hazardous as well, but also will be limited by a turnover to rain later today or this evening.
 
The Mountains from Hot Springs area northward should see a 3-6” snow with mixing of sleet a freezing rain as well. That snow will help offset some of the worst issues with the ice.
 
 
For many areas in the Southwestern Part of the state, the precipitation has already begun.
 
I expect the Northern areas will see precipitation by noon.
Precip will start as snow for most, and then mix over quickly to sleet and then Freezing rain.
 
Be Careful!
 
 


Great School in Northern Virginia. http://www.ambleside.org


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Wednesday, December 14, 2005

12/14 Winter Weather Alert: UPDATED

Winter Weather Event will likely cause problems in the Mountains, and with commutes
 
What?
A Mixture of Snow and Sleet as well as freezing rain will hamper the Morning commute tomorrow, but the extent of the frozen precip will be lessened as the storm system is expected to run more inland as it comes towards the area. Expect most areas to see a brief mix with a quick turnover to rain. This will not be as likely far western sections of Maryland
 
A very Heavy rain event tomorrow evening for areas that see ice outside of far western Mayland and Far western Virginia, this will likley melt it!
 
Where?
Most areas will see a quick shot of some sleet and snow quickly changing to rain and freezing rain. Freezing rain will persist in the mountainous areas especially the valleys, of Virginia and Maryland. Some higher elevation of far western areas will see snow (VA and MD) and then some Ice. Snow in central and Western Pennsylvania, though Far SW PA will see a mix and even rain for a while. This storm will not be a big icing event east of the mountains.
Some thoughts on amounts:
Western Maryland (Hagerstown) could see 2-4”.. then sleet and freezing rain.. west of and including this region could see a significant Ice Storm
 
Far Western Loudoun: 1-2” Snow then Sleet and Freezing rain and rain ..
Shenandoah valley, North of Hot Springs: 1-2” snow.. then ice and sleet.. to rain.. back to snow briefly
Coastal plains east of I-95 will see little mix to quick rain.
 
I-95 cities and west to immediate Piedmont, north of Fredericksburg could see a light coating
 
Cites west of a Fredericksburg to Lynchburg line could see some coating of ice early, then a mix over to rain.
 
 
When? Starting Thursday Early Morning South overspreading northern areas by Late Morning
 
Comments: This system has taken on much more of a warm look. The issue will be that a little precip will cause huge problems tomorrow as it is these minor events that can snarl traffic for hours!  The Ground, especially in Northern Virginia, is frozen and many stations are reporting road temps below freezing. Long and short.. not a big event, but a big headache is possible tomorrow morning depending on when the storm starts
 
As noted, I do not have time to update the mp, but it looks wrong now!
 
Of Note: Large potential Snow Storm early next week! Details are still being worked out!


Great School in Northern Virginia. http://www.ambleside.org


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Tuesday, December 13, 2005

12/13 DC/MD/VA Winter Weather Alert

What?
Significant Icing event. Moderate Icing event and Light Icing event
Some Accumulating Snows
 
Where?
Significant Icing: Immediate Piedmont: Maryland, Virginia, North Carolina
Major Icing: Immediate Piedmont to 35 miles west of I-95; Maryland, Virginia
North  Carolina : West Central NC
Light Icing: I-95 to about 35 miles west of  I-95: West Central NC
Snows: Higher elevations of Northern Virginia and Western Maryland. A large Part of Pennsylvania, West 40 miles west of I-95
 
When? Starting Thursday Early Morning South overspreading northern areas by Late Morning
 
Comments: Tough call in many ways. A lot of precip will fall over very shallow cold air. The Warm air appears to truly Surge over the area and warm areas close to or above freezing. There is a chance for significant rains as well. If things stay frozen, ice storm conditions could be reached by a lot more areas than what I am indicating on my first guess map. May issue a follow up call tomorrow night.. but my guess may be all the time I have to do.
 
 
Of Note: Large potential Snow Storm early next week!


Great School in Northern Virginia. http://www.ambleside.org


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Thursday, December 08, 2005

12/8 Late in the game: Last Call

My final thoughts on this one!
 
Charlottesville: 3-5" - Sleet a real possibility. Starting 8-10pm
Roanoke: 1-3" Icing concerns. May reach Ice Storm criteria 
Lynchburg 1"  Icing concerns. May reach Ice Storm criteria 
Richmond: Rain
Fredericksburg: 2-4" Snow.. then Sleet and Freezing Rain Starting 8-11pm
DC National: 2-4" Snow.. then Sleet and Freezing Rain Starting 8-11pm
Baltimore: 3-5" Snow.. then Sleet and Freezing Rain Starting 9-Midnight
Dulles: 3-5" - Sleet a real possibility. 8-11pm
Hagerstown: 4-8" (maybe 10") Starting 8-11pm
Purcellville: 4-8" Starting 8-11pm
 
Please note.. this is a dynamic system.. it could compensate for some warmth that it is en-training off the ocean and cause places to shift between snow and sleet and freezing rain. If we get Thunderstorms( a possibility) we will see higher totals of precip in whatever type is falling on you! That could be interesting!
 
 
 
 


Great School in Northern Virginia. http://www.ambleside.org


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12/8 Winter Weather Alert

Winter Weather Alert!
 
 
What? Winter Storm with mix and potential Ice Storm scenarios for regions.
 
When? Tonight into Friday
 
Where? Northern 1/3rd of the area, specifically Northern Virginia and Maryland , North of Fredericksburg and 25 mile either side of I-95 to see a mix of Freezing rain, sleet, and snow. More Snow Possible Far Northwestern Virginia and West of central Frederick County Maryland.  Central regions, just east of the Mountains and south of  a Fredericksburg to a Charlottesville line down to Roanoke area may meet ice storm criteria due to cold air damming.
 
How Much?
Mixed areas: 1-2 inches of snow and then a slop eastern side (I-95 and east), 2-4” western side, were more sleet will be involved verses Freezing rain.  
Areas staying all snow should see a healthy 4-8” with potential 10”+ amounts in spots.
There are signs of potential thunderstorms which will enhance precip types in all areas, and may add to totals of snow as dynamics could offset warmer air aloft.
 
Comments: This storm is still a quick mover and will give areas a quick change from no precipitation to serious amounts very quickly. Some early runs this morning indicate the possibility of less mixing. This leads me to think we could see more snow just west of I-95.. still the same regions.. north of Fredericksburg, west of  I-95.
 
More to come:
 
 
 


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Wednesday, December 07, 2005

12/7 .. DC/MD/VA Winter Weather Alert!

Quick hitting snowstorm will commence in the region later tomorrow through noon Friday. Southern 1/3rd of the region should see a mix to sleet and freezing rain and then rain. Norther 2/3rds a General 3-6" but chances for 2 things.. A dry slotting during energy transfers and a chance for thundersnow or convective banding which could either lessen ior intensify snow amounts..
 
Much to watch.. Take this as aGuess! That is all it is!
 
 


Great School in Northern Virginia. http://www.ambleside.org


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Tuesday, December 06, 2005

12/6 Winter Weather Alert for Thurday/Friday

Here we go again!
 
Winter Weather Alert!
 
I will be getting some input form a met on my official snow total releases this time!
 
What? A potential significant Winter Strom
 
When? Thursday into Friday
 
Where? At least the Southern 2/3rds of the region. Especially west of I-95.. and very likely most if not all the region.. will be fine tuning
 
How Much? Potential for larger amounts of snow than the last! There are signs some regions could get a foot. Early call though
 
Comments: Unlike last storm where models were truly opposed to each other about the system, this one has some more consensus. I am gun shy this time, but must bring attention to the storm and that it could have a lot of moisture as it will come out of the Gulf of Mexico ( For met people.. this is a Miller A)!
 
More to come:
 
Storm Post Mortem posted to http://mawinterweather.blogspot.com
 
 


Great School in Northern Virginia. http://www.ambleside.org


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Monday, December 05, 2005

12/5 Final Call Maps on 12/5 -12/6 system

This really Bucks the Models! Serious bust potential here!


This still looks pretty good, but start times!
Charlottesville: 5-10" Starting 7-10am
Roanoke: 5-10"+ (Some spots 12") Starting 4-9am
Lynchburg 4-8" Starting 4-9am
Richmond: 3-6" (Lots of Mixing with rain)  Starting 9am - noon
Fredericksburg: 5-10" Starting 10am to 1pm
DC National: 5-10" Starting 11am - 1pm
Baltimore: 5-10" Startng 11am - 2pm
IAD: 5-10" Starting 11am-1pm
Hagerstown: 4-8" Starting 11am-1pm
Purcellville: 4-8" Starting 11-1pm
Few things on this:
1. Think Storm will be further west than models 
2. See good Wrap around/deformation zone possible
3. Expecting a closer to the coast pull ultimately
 


Great School in Northern Virginia. http://www.ambleside.org


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Sunday, December 04, 2005

12/4 First Call Maps.. First call amounts

Ok. This is my first call, likely final call after next Model runs.Giving some Locations and amounts!
Charlottesville: 5-10" Starting Early Afternoon
Roanoke: 5-10"+ (Some spots 12") Starting 7-9am
Lynchburg 4-8" Starting 7-9am
Richmond: 3-6" Starting 9am - noon
Fredericksburg: 5-10" Starting noon to 3pm
DC National: 5-10" Starting 3-6pm
Baltimore: 5-10" Startng 5-8pm
IAD: 5-10" Starting 3-6pm
Hagerstown: 4-8" Starting 3-6pm
Purcellville: 4-8" Starting 3-6pm

Few things on this:
1. Think Storm will be further west
2. See good Wrap around/deformation zone possible
3. Expecting a closer to the coast pull ultimately
 


Great School in Northern Virginia. http://www.ambleside.org


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Saturday, December 03, 2005

2nd Guess! Posted!

 
 


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12/3 Winter Weather Alert! For TONIGHT's storm

 
Second storm looking like a classic I-95 Storm now!
 
 


Great School in Northern Virginia. http://www.ambleside.org


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12/3 DC/MD/VA Snow Alert UPDATED!! Shift SOUTH possible!

Snow Alert UPDATED!! Shift SOUTH possible!
 
The trends of the models has been to shift heavier snow southward! Based on this, lighter Snows would be expected north of Fredericksburg to Charlottesville areas. South of this down to Richmond and southwestward to Lynchburg could really be under the gun for a significant snow.  This is based on the models at this time. A new map will be issued later today or this evening. My thinking is that a pull to the north may occur.. but realistically, it could even shift further south!
 
Please Stay Tuned!


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First Guess for Monday'S Event

First Guess.. Latest Models have shifed South!
 


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Friday, December 02, 2005

12/2 DC/MD/VA Winter Weather Alert

First Real Snow Chances for the Region Monday. Appetizer tomorrow Night.
 
** Sorry to those that receive this twice. Alerts will just go to the alert email address after this one.
 
What?
2 Systems will affect the region between Today and Tuesday with Winter weather
 
System 1: No big deal, but a burst of snow and sleet should occur tomorrow evening that should last until Midnight.
 
System 2: Significant chance of a real snowstorm.
 
Where?
System 1: Northern 2/3rds of Virginia and Western Maryland. The Snow should change to rain for most regions, but North Central Maryland and the Northwestern part of Virginia.
 
System 2: All regions could see some snow, but again, best chances appear to be northern 2/3rds of Virginia, and western 2/3rds of Maryland. Snow should overtake the region and then a mix to rain, very quickly southern regions, and slowly a creep northward and westward. Right now would call for I-95 areas north of Frederickburg to see a moderate event, while areas west of this by 15 to 20 miles will see a potentially major storm.
 
How Much?
System 1: Dusting most areas at best, but 1 to as much as 3 inches in the areas staying snow or a mix. Grassy and elevated surfaces only.
 
System 2: (First Guess here) Potential exists for the Moderate areas to see 3 to 5 inches and the Major areas (mainly snow) to see 5 to 10 inches with some 12 inch readings in the higher elevations and immediate piedmont areas of Northern Virginia (North of Charlottesville and  western Maryland).
 
When?
System 1: Saturday late day through Midnight for most regions, but the areas mentioned where accumulations could occur will be through Sunday Morning.
 
System 2: Sunday Night through Monday.. possibly stretching to early Tuesday morning.
 
Comments: System 1 will not be a big deal. System 2 seriously could be, but we are early in the game on this! Shifts in the track obviously mean chances for more or less snow. As models converge on the system, updates will come. Also of note, roads are warm so salt will do a good job on helping melt the snow.
 
Expect snow impact Maps possibly tonight or tomorrow morning.. First Guess on Accumulations afternoon or evening tomorrow.
 
All for Now!


Great School in Northern Virginia. http://www.ambleside.org


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Tuesday, November 29, 2005

11/29 DC/MD/VA Severe Weather Alert

Severe Storms Possible Today:
 
There is a possibility of some thunderstorms today, some of which could produce severe winds. Overall, the day will be very windy and very rainy, especially later this morning into the mid evening.
 
OF NOTE: Our weather could get interesting Sunday into Monday... Maybe more likely next Tuesday into Wednesday. A lot of model discrepancies, but there appears to be the first real shot of a winter storm in the region during that time period! Of course, I will keep all posted.
 
 


Great School in Northern Virginia. http://www.ambleside.org


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Wednesday, November 23, 2005

11/23 DC/MD/VA Snow Showers!

I understand there were snow showers around yesterday evening for people east of the mountains, well it appears this possibility is becoming more likely overnight tonight. It appears that a clipper system (quick moving storms from Canada) will quickly overtake the area this evening and areas west of 95, especially the northern Half of Virginia and all of western MD, will see some brief, wind whipped, snow showers tonight. There may be enough now to whiten the ground in spots, but, typically these storms do not drop much snow for the region. The result tomorrow, will be very cold and windy conditions tomorrow!
 
Of note, the Great Lakes will be providing serious amounts of Lake Effect Snow the next few days! Also, northern New England  will also see some good snows.
 
This is just a Holiday sampler!
 
There were signs that a true snowstorm may take shape next week. The last several model runs have started to change the direction and may actually bring in warmer temperatures. I will keep you posted if things change!
 
Happy Thanksgiving!
 


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Saturday, November 19, 2005

11/19 DC/MD/VA Weather Outlook with Potential Snow in the forecast!


Well, a little earlier than I expected, but not without excited hopes, winter appears to have arrived and is already giving us excitement and near misses! A very windy wet (and mountain snowy) system looks ready to give us a close call Monday into Tuesday! Winds and rain could change to snow briefly at the end as very cold air gets wrapped in. This system appears to push the North Atlantic Oscillation NEGATIVE, which means COLDER conditions to follow and stay for a bit. It also means, storms COULD have potential to cause snow and as soon as Thanksgiving! Also another large low may visit next weekend or early the following week. Gamma formed!

Apologies to those who receive this twice! With the upupcomingravel holiday and the first chances of wintry weather, I felt it was good to let alallnow of the potential for inclement weather!
 
Summary:  Well, without real foreknowledge, the pattern WILL switch to a winter one and stay that way for a bit! It looks like the very powerful storm Monday into Tuesday will ultimately assist in bring very cold temperatures to the region and know the North Atlantic Oscillation Negative. (get ready for many travel issues for those headed out of town) The pattern will also have a good Pacific North American Pattern and if you are wondering what all this means.. it gives us a good chance to get winter weather! Do not write off Monday and Tuesday's storm as an all rain event, especially higher elevations which could see a significant snowfall, and other areas could see a turnover before the end of the storm! Thursday, yet another system approaches and I-95 cities and west could see some snow! Then the pattern is ready with another potential larger storm sometime between Next Friday and next Tuesday, and I do believe many may see their first REAL significant snow! Crazy summer of Tropical systems is turning into a crazy early winter.. even with the warm fall!
 
Tropics: Tropicl Storm Gamma is packing 45mph winds! Amazing historic tropical season lives on!
 
The look out for Winter: The Lookout is about to end in reality! The pattern of a Negative NAO and Positive PNA could not be better for a wintry east coast!  This should be a busy week!
 
Thanks to all who continue to post to the Forum. The community posts should SKYROCKET as we head towards our first winter systems! Our community has grown to 27 members. http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3/
 
Did you know? I send this update out semi regularly via email! To get it send and email to midatlanticweather-subscribe@yahoogroups.com I also send a Severe Weather Alert when we need it. To get it mid-atlanticweather-subscribe@yahoogroups.com I am considering a tropical only list as well.
 
 
Forecast text and graphics from National Weather Service. Mid Atlantic Weather com is not responsible for accuracy of these forecasts and may not be
held liable for any damages caused by using this web site. Data may not be current therefore the user agrees to always rely upon official forecast products
for their area provided by the National Weather Service.


Great School in Northern Virginia. http://www.ambleside.org


Yahoo! FareChase - Search multiple travel sites in one click.

11/19 DC/MD/VA Weather Outlook with Potential Snow in the forecast!


Well, a little earlier than I expected, but not without excited hopes, winter appears to have arrived and is already giving us excitement and near misses! A very windy wet (and mountain snowy) system looks ready to give us a close call Monday into Tuesday! Winds and rain could change to snow briefly at the end as very cold air gets wrapped in. This system appears to push the North Atlantic Oscillation NEGATIVE, which means COLDER conditions to follow and stay for a bit. It also means, storms COULD have potential to cause snow and as soon as Thanksgiving! Also another large low may visit next weekend or early the following week. Gamma formed!

Apologies to those who receive this twice! With the upupcomingravel holiday and the first chances of wintry weather, I felt it was good to let alallnow of the potential for inclement weather!
 
Summary:  Well, without real foreknowledge, the pattern WILL switch to a winter one and stay that way for a bit! It looks like the very powerful storm Monday into Tuesday will ultimately assist in bring very cold temperatures to the region and know the North Atlantic Oscillation Negative. (get ready for many travel issues for those headed out of town) The pattern will also have a good Pacific North American Pattern and if you are wondering what all this means.. it gives us a good chance to get winter weather! Do not write off Monday and Tuesday's storm as an all rain event, especially higher elevations which could see a significant snowfall, and other areas could see a turnover before the end of the storm! Thursday, yet another system approaches and I-95 cities and west could see some snow! Then the pattern is ready with another potential larger storm sometime between Next Friday and next Tuesday, and I do believe many may see their first REAL significant snow! Crazy summer of Tropical systems is turning into a crazy early winter.. even with the warm fall!
 
Tropics: Tropicl Storm Gamma is packing 45mph winds! Amazing historic tropical season lives on!
 
The look out for Winter: The Lookout is about to end in reality! The pattern of a Negative NAO and Positive PNA could not be better for a wintry east coast!  This should be a busy week!
 
Thanks to all who continue to post to the Forum. The community posts should SKYROCKET as we head towards our first winter systems! Our community has grown to 27 members. http://www.midatlanticweather.com/bb3/
 
Did you know? I send this update out semi regularly via email! To get it send and email to midatlanticweather-subscribe@yahoogroups.com I also send a Severe Weather Alert when we need it. To get it mid-atlanticweather-subscribe@yahoogroups.com I am considering a tropical only list as well.
 
 
Forecast text and graphics from National Weather Service. Mid Atlantic Weather com is not responsible for accuracy of these forecasts and may not be
held liable for any damages caused by using this web site. Data may not be current therefore the user agrees to always rely upon official forecast products
for their area provided by the National Weather Service.


Great School in Northern Virginia. http://www.ambleside.org


Yahoo! FareChase - Search multiple travel sites in one click.

Wednesday, November 16, 2005

11/16 Severe Weather Possible.. Winds most likely

Severe Weather Alert
 
Fortunately the passing of the front today will not be after maximum heating or the chances of severe storms would be higher. Despite this, even a heavy shower could mix Down very strong winds and that alone could cause severe wind gusts up to 60 mph. The NWS did issue a Wind Advisory as we will see a big change in the weather.
 
Please stay tuned... Despite the threat not being as strong. There is the possibility of some severe storms and isolated tornadoes.
 
This will be the start of what could be a very cold period. We may see winter weather the week after Thanksgiving. More to come!
 
 


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Sunday, November 06, 2005

11/6 DC/MD/VA Severe Weather Alert

Severe Storms possible with strong winds and isolated Tornadoes
 
Dynamics in the atmosphere will be conducive for Severe storms as a strong cold front moves through the area. The Strong front could produce severe storms with the risk of high winds and even tornadoes.
 
Please stay tuned to media and weather outlets for watches and/or warnings.
 


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Monday, October 24, 2005

Could it snow? Yes! N. VA and MD

There is a chance that snow could mix in with the rain west of a Charlottesville to Dulles to Ferederick County line. Higher the elevation, the better the chance!
 
the Mixing would be earl in teh Morning Tuesday. Higher elevations of Western Virginia may see a period of all snow overnight into tomorrow morning!
 
Wild weather!
 


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Thursday, September 29, 2005

9/29 DC/MD/VA Severe Weather Alert

Severe Weather Possible Today
As a strong cold front crosses the area a line of showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front. Due to strong winds aloft there is the possibility that severe winds could mix down to the surface. Once the front has passed the afternoon will continue breezy and much cooler air will be filtering into the area. This cold "snap" should only last about a day as we will then climb to normal and then above normal temperature, but get ready for a cool Friday Morning and cooler than normal Friday.
 


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Monday, September 26, 2005

9/26 DC/MD/VA Severe Weather Alert

Severe Weather possible today!
The combination of a strong cold front combined with the remnants of Rita will cross the area today. This front could trigger some strong to severe storms which could mix some high winds to the surface. There is the chance that isolated cells could spawn a tornado so please stay alert to media and weather outlets today for watches and or warnings.
 
All for now.
 
 
  


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Click here to donate to the Hurricane Katrina relief effort.